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9月
21 2015
 

21世纪信息化时代下,科技对教育的影响


   作者:梁琳莹 发表时间-18 :48:54  阅读( 1020 )| 评论( 0 )

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 主讲:Ted McCain 国际咨询集团InfoSavvy21高级总裁

1 颠覆性创新的涟漪效应  各位早上好  Good morning!  非常荣幸今天能够来到这里和大家做报告  It’s an honor to be here to speak to you today.  今天早上我想和大家讲的是未来  This morning I want to talk to you about the future.  未来对于我们的孩子意味着什么  What does the future hold for our children?  对那些今年入读幼儿园的孩子  For the children who enter our school for the first time in the kindergarten this year,  他们将在 2028 年上高中  who will access our high schools in 2028,  他们将生活在一个怎样的世界里  What kind of world will they live in?  他们在未来取得成功需要哪些技能?  What will they need for success in their future?  我来自加拿大温哥华  I’m from Vancouver in Canada,  加拿大的教师们  and I can tell you that Canadian educators are  今年夏天也跟我们今天早上一样  trying to do the very same thing we are doing this morning.  聚首一堂  They are meeting in this summer to try to  探讨未来对学生们来说意味着什么  determine what future holds for their students.  我们看看当今一些全球趋势  So let’s look at some of the global trends  这些趋势正在塑造我们学生的未来  that are shaping the future our students will experience.  在《破坏性教学》这本书里  In his book Disrupting Class  作者向我们介绍了“颠覆性创新”这一概念  Clayton Christensen introduces to us his concept known as “disrupting innovation”.  这是一个关键的推动力影响着全球教师  This is a key global force that is impacting teachers around the world.  颠覆性创新 Disruptive innovation  从根本上改变了传统的做事方式  has fundamentally altered the traditional long-standing ways of doing things.  颠覆性创新  Disruptive innovation  改变我们的工作方式娱乐方式沟通方式  transforms how we work, how we play, how we communicate,  看待同胞的方式和生活的方式  how we view our fellow citizens and how we live in the world.  这一颠覆性创新背后的推动力  The driving forces behind this disruptive innovation  是今天惊人的技术发展  is the incredible technological development occurring in the world today.  但是刚开始的技术创新  However, what would start the new technological innovation,  很快就得到发展  it quickly becomes much more than that,  因为创新改变了人们的行为方式  because innovation results in change in human behavior.  比如 iphone 手机的发展  For example, take the development of iphone.  刚开始它只是一个新的工具  It started out as just a new technological tool.  这是乔布斯 2007 年第一次向人们介绍 iphone 手机  He was Steve Jobs, the chairman of Apple, introducing the iphone in 2007.  如今 iphone 不仅仅是手机  Now the iphone was an amazing new idea for a cellphone.  除了手机的功能  But in addition to being a cellphone  它也有一些自带的功能  it also has a number of other built-in technologies,  以及全新的运行系统  and came with a new revolutionary operating system  让人们用手势就可以沟通  that allows you to communicate with others using natural hand gestures.  使用新设备又酷又有趣  It was cooland fun to use new device  但很快它就不仅仅是一个设备  but it soon became much more than that.  这一创新将颠覆世界的运行方式  This innovation would disrupt the way the world functions.  起初人们很难看到  At first, it was hard to see the connection  iphone 和生活方式之间的联系 between this device and how people live their lives,  但一旦人们开始使用它  but once people began using it,  他们便发现以前的事情可以用新的方式来做  they discover new ways of doing old things.  比如说人们每天都带着手机  For example, since people carry their phones with them all the time,  他们就会开始用手机听音乐  they start to listen to music on their phones,  这样人们就不再需要索尼随身听这样的便携式音乐播放器了  that makes them no longer need Sony walkman  这样人们就不再需要索尼随身听这样的便携式音乐播放器了  and diskman and similar portable music players.  这些设备的销售就直线下降  Sales of these devices dropped to zero.  之后苹果公司又推出 iTunes store 用户可以获得廉价的音乐  Then Apple introduced the itunes store and made songs available inexpensively.  随着越来越多的人购买在线音乐  As more people bought digital songs,  iphone 和 iTunes store 显著改变了整个音乐产业  the iphone and the itunes store significantly changed the entire music industry.  人们发现可以在用 iphone 玩游戏  People discover they can play games on their iphone.  于是便携式游戏机的销量也大幅下降  Consequently, the sales of portable game devices  因为人们的行为习惯发生了改变  like the Nintendo Gameboy dropped completely due to a shift of behavior.  正是因为人们随时随地都带着手机  Again, since people always have their phones with them,  他们也用手机拍照  they use their phones, iphones to take photos.  这也导致了数码相机销量的下降  This significantly cut the sales of digital camera.  人们开始在 iphone 上看视频  People shifted to watch videos on their iphones,  影像店就销声匿迹了  and video stores all disappeared.  人们不仅用手机看视频  People not only watch videos on their iphones,  他们还用手机拍视频  they shot videos on their iphones.  掀起了一股视频分享热潮  This led to a whole new era of video sharing.  银行业务也受到影响 The banking business was also hit by the shift of people′s behavior,  因为人们可以在手机上使用网上银行  as people moved to do online banking using their iphones.  iphone 很快就成为整个智能手机和触屏行业的佼佼者  The iphone soon swallowed the whole smart phone industry around touching phone  苹果公司紧接着又推出了 ipad  Apple then expanded the desire of iphone into the ipad,  开创了全新的平板电脑产业  and created a whole new tablet industry.  智能手机和平板电脑改变了人们获得新闻和信息的方式  Smart phones and digital tables shifted people’s ways of getting news and information.  报纸和杂志都受到影响  Newspapers and magazines felt the impact.  今天有报纸都有电子版满足在线阅读的需求  All newspapers today have their online edition to meet their demand of online reading,  多家报社已经完全停止发行纸质版  and many has stopped publishing paper edition altogether.  智能手机的发展带来了很多其他的变化  There are many changes that came from this one development,  但我想再提一点  but I want to mention one more,  因为这个变化很大  because it was so big,  没人能猜到 iphone 的创新  nobody could ever has guessed the innovation of the iphone  能带来如此巨大的变化  could cause changes so large  iphone 短短几年的发展  within a few years of the development of the iphone  严重损害了一个国家的经济  severely damaged the economy of the entire country.  2007 年 iphone 面世的时候  When the iphone was first released in 2007,  芬兰的诺基亚还是全球手机设计和销售的龙头  Nokia, based in Finland, was the world leader in cellphone design and sales.  但自那之后诺基亚逐渐衰退  Since then, Nokia has been steadily declined.  微软去年四月收购了诺基亚  Microsoft bought Nokia last April,  收购后立即解雇了 12,500 名员工  and immediately laid off more than 12,500 employees.  智能手机和平板电脑还影响了芬兰的另一个产业  Then the shift to smartphones and tablets impacted another Finnish industry.  在 iphone 和 ipad 面世之前 Prior to the iphone and ipad  报业是芬兰的一大国际产业  paper industry was one of Finland’s biggest international industries.  雇员众多  It employed tens of thousands of workers.  但是当人们开始用 iphone 和 ipad 获取信息  But when people shifted to get their news on iphones and ipads,  对报纸和杂志的需求便每况日下  the drop in demand for newspapers and magazines  芬兰的报业受到了严重的冲击  had a huge impact on the Finnish newspaper industry.  芬兰的林业工人纷纷失业  Thousands of Finnish forest workers lost their jobs.  iphone 的发展给了芬兰经济沉重的一击  The development of iphone hit the Finnish economy hard.  在短短 8 年中为什么能发生如此大的变革?  How could changes of such magnitude happen in just eight years?  原因就在于创新带来的涟漪效应  The reason is that there is a ripple effect of change that results from innovation.  就像你往池塘扔块石头涟漪会越来越大  Just like you throw a pebble into a pond, the ripples get bigger over time.  涟漪越大破坏力也就越强  As these ripples grow in size, so does the destruction that occurs in our lives.  颠覆性创新最终将影响全人类  Disruptive innovation ultimately is a human issue.  这一创新可能始于科技发展  It may start with technological development,  但是当影响的涟漪越来越大  but as the ripples of impact grow,  它将改变人们的生活  it changes people’s lives.  迫使我们用新的方式处理以前的事情  It forces us to do old things in new ways.  把我们推出“舒适区”  2 创新给教育带来的颠覆性涟漪和指数型增 长  It pushes us out of our zones of comfort.  现在我们看看创新给教育带来的颠覆性涟漪  I want to look at some of the disruptive ripples that innovation is causing in education. 在这之前  But before I do,  我想提醒大家一个重要的方面  I need to alert you to an important aspect of the kind of change  就是我们未来可能要应对的改变  that we can expect to deal with in the future,  也就是 iphone 带来的改变  the kind of change brought by the iphone.  要知道改变的本质已经发生了变化  You need to know the very nature of change has changed.  I was a leading author of the book Living on the Future Edge.  我是《生活在未来的边缘》的作者之一  In that book  在这本书里  we identify four exponential trends that are occurring in the world today.  我们指出当今世界正在发生的四项呈指数发展的趋势  You will encounter this word more and more as you move further into the 21st century  今后你会经常碰到这个词  The word is “exponential”.  “指数”  What does this word mean?  这个词的意思什么  More importantly  更重要的是  what does it mean that we will be experiencing exponential change?  我们将经历指数型变化意味着什么  How will this affect my life? How will this affect my job?  这对我的生活的工作将会有怎样的影响  As an educator  作为一名教育者  it is important that we get our heads around what exponential change is.  我们应了解什么是指数型变化  I am gonna use an example of the growth of a plant to illustrate this.  我想用一株植物的生长来解释一下  For example, let’s say you want to buy a plant to fill a bay window in your home.  比如说你想买株植物来装点家里的落地窗  So you go to the nursery and you get a plant  于是你就去买了一株植物  that will grow to full height in 30 days.  这株植物能在 30 天内长到最高  a height that will fill the entire window.  达到落地窗的高度  Now this plant has a linear growth pattern.  如果这株植物呈线性生长 What would this kind of growth look like?  它的生长轨迹会是怎样的呢  Here is the graph of the growth of this plant with the linear growth pattern  这幅图展示了这株植物在 30 天内长到最高的线性生长轨迹  that grows to the full height of window in 30 days.  这幅图展示了这株植物在 30 天内长到最高的线性生长轨迹  After 10 days, you will see one third of the plant.  10 天物长到三分之一  After 15 days, you see half of the plant.  15 天物长到一半儿  After 20 days, you see two thirds of the plant.  20 天物长到三分之二  The growth would be easily predictable.  预测它的生长轨迹非常简单  The changing height increases by a constant amount each day.  因为它每天长高的量是一样的  It’s important to note  一直以来  that all through history we have dealt with this kind of linear change.  我们都在应付这种线性变化  But what if the person in the garden instead gave you a plant  如果这株植物的生长轨迹是 30 天指数型成长  with an exponential 30-day growing pattern?  情况会是怎样的呢  Will it double in size daily?  它会每天增长一倍吗  What would be the outcome?  结果会是怎样的呢  Here’s the plant on Day One.  这是第一天的情况  It’s not very dramatic.  效果不是很明显  So let’s jump ahead to day 20. 、  我们直接跳到第 20 天吧  But before we do,  在这之前  if this was linear growth,  如果它还是线性增长的话  how much of the plant will be seen at day 20?  第 20 天的时候会长到多高呢  Two thirds.  三分之二  But here actually what we see at day 20 with exponential growth.  这里大家看到的是指数型增长第 20 天的情况 It’s not very impressive, is it?  情况不是很喜人对吗  Even though the plant is doubling in size daily,  即使它每天增长一倍  even though this is exponential growth,  即使这是指数型增长  we still see very little.  植物看上去并不是很出色  If you are doing the math,  大家算一下就知道  only one sixty-fourth of the plant is showing at this point.  这时植物只长了六十四分之一  So let’s jump ahead to day 25.  我们跳到第 25 天  This is what we see on day 25.  这是第 25 天的情况  This plant is just not growing the way it should.  它还是一点起色都没有  If this plant isgrowing with linear manner,  如果是线性增长  we should see five sixth of the plant by now,  我们现在应该看到六分之五的植物  but it is barely over the rim of the pot,  但现在它就只长了一点儿  and there are only 5 days left.  而且只剩 5 天了  This is day 26.  这是第 26 天  Something is wrong.  情况不对劲  What we have is the stunted growth  它压根就没长  and there are only 4 days to go.  只剩 4 天了  This is what we see on day 27.  这是第 27 天  They must have given me the wrong plant.  他们肯定给错我植物了  I mean, this plant is just never going to make it.  这株植物可能不会发育了  How could it possibly cover the entire window in just 3 days?  要在 3 天内长到窗户的高度简直是不可能的  [48:42]On day 28, this plant is just pathetic  第 28 天这株植物就是个悲剧 We’ve reachedday 28  到第 28 天  this plant only reach one quarter of the height of the window.  它就只长到窗户高度的四分之一  I think should take this plant back to the garden center, don′t you?  我觉得我应该把它退回给花园对吗  Well let’s see what happens.  我们看看接下来情况如何  On day 29  第 29 天  we finally notice something happened.  我们终于看到有所起色  But there is no time left  但没时间了  only half the window is covered.  它只长到窗户高度的一半  It’s incomprehensible that the plant can do the job.  它不可能在最后一天就长到窗户的高度  But here’s the critical question.  这里就有一个关键问题  If this plant doubles in size each day,  如果这株植物每天增长一倍  what’s going to happen tomorrow?  明天的情况会是怎样的  Bang! Theplant explodes in the view.  砰它爆长了  The entire window is covered,  已经长到窗户的高度了  and it seems that all happened in just one day.  而且好像是一天之内就实现了  This is the power of exponential doubling.  这就是指数型加倍的力量  By the time we notice something is happening,  当我们察觉到新情况时  the exponential growth pattern is about to really kick in.  正是指数型增长真正起作用的时候  And development explodes onto the scene with dramatic effect.  这时会出现突发性的爆炸性的变化  That’s why the Internet exploded into life.  这也是互联网迅猛发展的原因  They worked on networking for 40 years  互联网发展了 40 年  with very little impact on the general public,  但对公众的影响却非常小 then the exponential growth pattern really kicked in,  接着指数型增长发挥作用了  and the world was engulfed into the tide of information in a change  世界仿佛被卷入信息流中  that seemed to happen overnight,  而变化仿佛发生在一夜之间  That’s the power of exponential growth.  这就是指数型增长的力量  Once the doubling, tripling or quadrupling kicks in,  一旦指数的增长是两倍三倍甚至是四倍  look out,  这时就要留意了  because change occurs at breath-taking speed.  因为变化的速度是惊人的  This is what the graph looks like  从这个图表  that shows you the growth of the plant that doubles in size daily.  大家可以看到植物的指数型增长模式  Let’s go.  请看  Exponential growth looks like nothing is happening,  虽然指数型增长初看起来似乎没有什么变化  and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end.  但最后会突然爆发  This is a quote from Ray Kurzweil in his book the Singularity is near.  这句话来自 Ray Kurzweil 今年的书 Singularity is near  Exponential change is what I call swift change.  指数型增长就是我所说的“迅速变化”  It hits up on you.  它会突然爆发  By the time you notice something is happening,  当你察觉有新情况出现时  you are about to be overwhelmed with something new.  很快就会被新情况弄得手无足措  And the growth in change can be staggering.  变化的发展也可能是惊人的  In the same book  在他的书里  Kurzweil talks about the difference  Kurzweil 也谈到  between taking 30 linear steps and taking 30 exponential steps.  线性增长和指数型增长的区别  He’s now talking about  他说 the difference in the math between adding a constant to a total or doubling the total.  两者区别就在于往总数上加一个恒量还是使总数呈两倍增长  Here’s what he says.  这是他的原话  With 30 linear steps, you get to 30.  如果是线性增长增长 30 就是 30  With 30 exponential steps you get to one billion.  但是指数增长增长 30 就是十亿  If this is the math behind the change in the world today,  如果这就是当今世界变化背后的数学原理  then we have to look at things differently.  所以我们应该用不同的角度来看待事物  The only way to deal with this kind of change is look to the future.  应对这种变化的唯一方式是展望未来  You must be ahead of the curve,  你必须处于领先地位  you must lead, plan and act with the future in mind.  你必须站在未来领军者的角色  You must be able to detect new trends,  你必须能够察觉新趋势  project out their logical expansion,  预测符合逻辑的发展动态  and begin to act now to prepare  着手准备  and capitalize new opportunities that are coming.  把握新机会  So as we look at the changes that are affecting education,  我们看看影响教育的变化  and project these changes into the future,  并将这些变化和未来结合起来  it’s critical that we continue to ask ourselves,  关键的一点是我们要时常问自己  are we using linear thinking?  当我们展望未来时我们用的是线性思考方式  or exponential thinking when are projecting with the future goals.  还是指数型思考方式  And remember that the world doesn’t stop innovating on day 30,  要记住在第 30 天后创新永不间断  If the world is being driven by exponential change,  如果世界的发展受指数型变化驱动  what does the graph of the plant type look like on day 31, or day 32?  那在第 31 或 32 天植物的生长又会是怎样的呢  Once exponential change really kicks in,  一旦指数型变化开始发挥作用 the effect is almost unimaginable.  效果是几乎无法想象的    3 影响教育的发展动态趋势一:超信息 (hyper-information.)  Now there has been a multitude of innovation  现在许多创新带来的影响正在波及我们的生活  whose ripples of impact that are moving towards our lives.  现在许多创新带来的影响正在波及我们的生活  and we don’t have time to look at them all.  这里我们没有时间一一讲述  So let’s focus on some of the development  所以我们只看那些影响教育的发展动态  that are impacting what we are doing at schools.  所以我们只看那些影响教育的发展动态  I want to focus on two trends this morning.  我想集中讲讲两个趋势  The first trend I want to focus what I call hyper-information.  第一个趋势我称之为超信息  This trend affects teachers and students directly,  这一趋势直接影响师生  because so much of education involves information.  因为教育涉及大量信息  Before we talk about this trend,  在我们细讲这一趋势之前  I want you to stop and think for a moment.  我想停下来思考一下  What is the major skill that is developed by the vast majority of instruction  现在学校教育主要在培养学生的哪项技能呢  that occurs in your schools?  现在学校教育主要在培养学生的哪项技能呢  My observation has been that there is emphasis on memorizing course content,  在我看来我们一直在强调记忆课程内容  and memorizing procedures for doing things like mathematics,  还有记忆像做数学题一样的步骤程序  and often this memorization is done without students’ understanding  学生们虽然记住了  what the material means.  却不理解其中原理 This approach of instruction has been in place for hundreds of years.  几百年来我们都在采取这样的教育方式  The question is,  问题是  does memorization skill adequately prepare students for the world  学生在未来是否只需要记忆这一技能  that awaits them when they graduate?  学生在未来是否只需要记忆这一技能  Let’s look at the nature of information in the world today,  我们看看当今信息的本质  and see what that tells us about how we should be preparing our students.  看看我们应如何教育我们的学生  So how this disruptive innovation  颠覆性创新  impacted the nature of information in the modern world?  是如何影响当今信息的本质的  Well, first of all  首先  there is a lot more information than ever before.  现在的信息量比以往多得多  What’s the cause of the explosion of information?  引起信息爆炸的原因在哪  Consider this,  大家想想  over 90% of the scientists who have ever lived in all of human history are alive today,  人类历史上超过 90%的科学家都是现代科学家  and the amount of research and innovation  科研量和创新量  that have been done has expanded exponentially,  也都呈指数型增长  and as a result of all these people doing their work,  得益于这些人的辛勤工作  add to this the rapid explosion of the Internet into our lives  加上互联网的迅猛发展  all these new research and innovation  所有这些新的科研和创新成果  becomes instantly available to anyoneanywhere on the planet.  都突然变得触手可及  It’s important for people and company to know  对个人和公司来说了解信息非常重要  these new information in order for their workers to do their job  这样工人才能完成任务  and for companies to gain competitive advantage.  公司也可以获得竞争优势 But there is even more information on the Internet.  互联网上还有更多信息  The global network gives people access to news about,  全球网络让人们得以了解世界新闻  everything from natural disasters to politics to sports,  无论是自然灾害政治还是运动比赛  as well there are experts from around the world giving commentaries on all topics  专家们也会对这些话题做出评论  to help people interpret it and understand what’s happening in the world around them,  让人们更好理解身边发生的事  and to help workers understand how to apply new research and innovation to their jobs  也让工人们懂得如何将新的科研和创新成果运用到工作中  Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia,  维基百科是自由的百科全书  and it’s a good indicator of how big the explosion of up-to-date information really is.  它很好地说明了最新信息爆炸的规模  Wikipedia was created in 2001,  维基百科 2001 年创立  and since then,  自那以来  more than 5 million articles in 250 languages have been added to this website.  有 500 多万篇文章发表在这个网站上覆盖语言高达 250 种  Over 1 million new articles have been posted to Wikipedia in the last year alone.  仅在去年就有 100 多万篇文章发表在维基上  In March, 2015, there are over 20,000,000,000 page views in all Wikipedia tools.  2015 年 3 月维基各工具总浏览量达 200 亿  And remember, this is just one informational site.  注意这只是一个信息网站  There are so many more.  类似的网站还有很多  Baidu has indexed over 740 million web pages.  百度为 7.4 亿个网页编了索引  In fact, Google by itself has copied and indexed more than 1 trillion web pages.  事实上仅仅谷歌就复制和编入了 1 百万个网页  Most of the information on those pages are accessible in less than a second  网页上的大部分信息都是可以即时获得的  and searchable in 100 languages  并且可用 100 种语言进行检索  And to help people find information,  为帮助人们找到信息  powerful search engines like Baidu and Google and Yahoo and many others  像百度谷歌和雅虎这样的搜索引擎  are enabling people to search and find exactly what they are looking for.  都在帮助人们快速准确找到他们需要的信息 The amount of information that has been accessed in the world today  当今世界的信息量大小  is evident in the number of searches that has been processed every day.  可从每天的搜索数量看出  Did you know that Baidu has 5 million searches every day?  你是否知道百度每天有 500 万的搜索量  While that’s only in China, Google haggles 3 billion searches a day.  这只是中国的数据谷歌每天有 30 亿的搜索量  While Baidu and Google are doing that,  这也只是百度和谷歌的数据  at the same time, Yahoo has 1.2bilion searches a day.  雅虎每天也有 12 亿的搜索量  The amount of information in the world has quite literally exploded.  因此现在可以说现在是信息爆炸的时代  To give you the idea of how much information is available in the online world,  为了了解当今网上有多少可获得信息  a group at Boston IDC Institute added up all the zeros and ones  波士顿一个组织将所有数据  that make up all photos, videos, pdf files, emails,  如照片视频 PDF 邮件  web pages, instant messages and other digital data,  网页和即时信息等加起来  and determined that by august 2009,  他们得出到 2009 年 8 月份  there were 500 EB of digital data in the world.  信息量已经达到 500EB  Just how big is 500 EB of information?  500EB 的信息是多大呢  If you printed out these information in standard books,  如果将这些信息打印成册  and took those books, and piled them up,  然后把它们堆叠起来  the stack of books will extend into the space.  是可以堆到外太空的  My colleague calculated stack of books would extend all the way  我的同事算了下  from the earth to the solar system, to the not really a planet anymore, Pluto.  这一叠书可以从地球一直延伸到冥王星  But wait a minute, not just one stack,  而且不是只有一叠  He has calculated that 500 EB would be equivalent to 13 stacks of books  500EB 的信息量等于 13 叠  that extend all the way from the earth to the Pluto.  从地球延伸到冥王星的书 That’s ly an incredible amount of data.  这信息量是巨大的  This is ly overwhelming.  也是惊人的  And remember that this is based on the amount of data in 2009.  注意这只是 09 年的数据  How much information is there in the world today?  现在的数据量有多大呢  I’ll show you exponential growth in the picture  我将给大家展示一幅指数型增长图  and give you an idea of the staggering amount of data  这样大家可以想象  that will be available in the future.  在未来会有怎样的数据爆炸  But you need to know  但要知道  that hyper information is much more than just the amount of data available,  超信息要比那些可获得的信息多得多  it’s important that you understand  大家也要知道  that the quality information is now available as well.  高质的信息现在也可获得  We are in the midst of a migration of the world’s literary works to a digital format.  我们正处在从纸质版到电子版的过渡中  CADAL the Chinese-United States Million Book digital library project,  中美百万图书数字图书馆项目 CADAL  has already digitalized hundreds of thousands of Chinese books.  已经把成千上万本中文书数字化  with the growth of converting millions of books into digital formats within the few years,  在接下来几年也将把成百上千万本书扫成电子版  Superstar, a company based in Beijing,  北京的一家公司  has scanned every book from 200 libraries in China,  扫描了中国 200 多个图书馆的书  representing half the books published in the Chinese language since 1949.  这些书占了 1949 年后出版的中文书的一半  That’s Google.  这是谷歌  Google is doing much more than just indexing web pages.  谷歌不仅为网页编索引  In December, 2004, Google announced that it would digitize all the books in five prestigious  libraries,  2004 年 12 月谷歌宣布将把五个著名图书馆的书扫成电子版  all of the books in the library of Stanford University 包括斯坦福大学  all of the books at Harvard University  哈佛大学  all of the books at Oxford University  牛津大学  all of the books at the University of Michigan  密歇根大学  and the entire New York public library collection  和纽约公共图书馆  This is now largely done,  谷歌现在已经完成了大部分工作  and there are others,  还有其他一些例子  also in 2004, Raj Reddy, a professor at Carnegie-Melon University  2004 年,卡内基梅隆大学的 Raj Reddy 教授  began scanning books from his university’s library  开始扫描他们大学图书馆的书  called the million book project  叫百万图书项目  its goal was to scan a million books by the year 2008  旨在到 2008 年扫描一百万本书  He was a little late,  虽然起步比较晚  but it’s now done.  但项目现在已经完成  There is a rapid growth of digital libraries of digital books being created.  数字图书馆迅猛发展数字图书越来越多  Just think what is already available to people when they do searching,  大家可以想想现在人们搜索的时候可获得的信息量有多大  search almost any book,  大家可以找到任何一本书  by almost any author,  任何一位作者的书  and instantly get a summary,  而且可以立即获得书的摘要  and if you require further  如果你需要更多信息  you can get the full text,  你可以拿到完整版  There is an amazing number of books.  书的数量也是惊人的  The text can be downloaded and digitally passed to computer  你可以把书下载下来或传到电脑上  for reading, searching, sorting and inserting 阅读搜索分类和登载  Very soon checking a library book will become old fashion.  去图书馆找书很快就会过时  We are witnessing the creation of a mass digital library of great literary works,  我们正在见证大型数字图书馆的诞生  but there is even more.  不止这些  disruptive innovation is providing us with new tools of accessing to these information.  颠覆性创新也给我们提供了新的获取信息的工具  We already have the iphone and other smart phones.  我们已经有 iphone 和其他智能手机  Amazon has produced the Kindle book reader.  亚马逊也推出了 Kindle 读书器  People can now access information on their ipad or other digital tablets.  人们也可以在 ipad 或其他平板电脑上获取信息  There are new devices that can be mounted your glasses  现在也有新的设备可以安装到你的眼镜上  as well as a whole range of fantastic new digital devices that are in development.  还有其他一些正在开发的工具  And all these devices are capable of displaying multimedia nformation.  这些设备都可以展示多媒体信息  The shift that is taking place in the world today to an audio, video format information  当今世界信息的格式正在向音频和视频转变  is transforming the way we learn about the world.  这正在改变我们了解世界的方式  When I grew up  在我的成长过程中  people had to read about what was happening.  人们通过阅读了解世界  Often, days after occurred.  经常是数天前的新闻  It was a second-hand experience.  读报是二次信息汲取  Today people can learn about things as they happen.  今天我们能及时了解事件的发生  And they can experience the event in texts, images, videos and sound.  我们能在文字图像视频和声音中感知事件  They can see for themselves what is happening.  我们也可以自主了解  Take the tsunami that hit Japan in March, 2011.  拿 2011 年 3 月日本海啸来说  Videos like this are available online  像这样的视频在网上就能找到  brought the devastating impact of that event 通过观看视频世界各地的人们  into the homes of people around the globe.  都感受到了海啸带来的灾难性影响  People could experience the disaster first hand.  人们可以在第一时间亲身感受这一灾难  Not only that  不仅如此  we have seen historical images, video footage, historical audio  历史图像、镜头和音频  recordings being converted into digital format,  也被转成电子格式  all this means that people today can learn  这就意味着  both the current world and learn about history from first-hand experience  人们可以掌握当今世界和历史的第一手信息  They can see images of the long March, of the Red Army in 1934,  我们可以看到长征红军在 1934 年的照片  or watch Deng Xiaoping giving a speech on economic reform.  也可以看邓小平关于经济改革的演讲  Students today can see images of the rise of Nazism,  学生们可以看到纳粹主义的图片  the growth in size of the Third Reich  德意志第三帝国的规模  hear John Kennedy outline his plans to land a man on the moon,  听肯尼迪总统宣布人类登月计划  or watch the actual video footage  也可以看人类第一次登月时的录像资料  that was recorded when man first set foot on Moon surface.  也可以看人类第一次登月时的录像资料  Our students will soon have access to any single bit of information,  很快我们的学生都可以获得这些信息  any piece of text  包括世界任何文字  any photograph, any video, any painting, any TV or radio program  图像视频图画电视或电台节目  any web page, any blog post, any music produced by anyone around the world.  网页博客帖子和音乐  Very soon the entire works of mankind  很快人类所有有记载的历史和作品  from the beginning of recorded history in all languages will be accessible digitally  都会被转为电子格式  almost anywhere on the planet wirelessly within a fashion of second.  随时随地几秒钟就可获得  This would be a large digital library of multimedia information that can be explored with powerful searching tools.  这一巨大的多媒体信息电子图书馆可通过强大的搜索工具进行查找  And all this will be available to the average person.  每个普通人都可以随时随地获取信息  This access to everything, in every format, at anytime, anywhere on colorful, powerful, portable  devices  这种随时随地通过任何便携式设备获得各种格式的信息  is what I call hyper information.  就是我所说的超信息  And so we must ask some critical questions  我们必须要问几个关键问题  about how to prepare students for the world that awaits them when they leave us.  关于学生该怎样学习为未来做准备  For example,  比如说  what does it mean to be educated in the world of hyper information?  在超信息世界里怎样才是受过教育  What’s the current focus of teaching in your schools?  贵校现在的教学关注点是什么  Performing well in the tests has long been called as education,  在考试中取得优异成绩一直以来都是教育的焦点  but what skills does it produce in our students?  但这培养了学生的哪些技能  What I have seen from my work around the world is that  从我的经历看来  a focus on written tests enhances students’ ability to memorize.  关注笔试提高了学生的记忆能力  But does this traditional focus on memorization  但对记忆能力的强调  serve students well in the modern world?  是否对学生的未来有利  Of course, memorization will always have a place in education.  当然记忆在教育中总有一席之地  You can’t talk intelligently about something you don’t know.  对不知道的事情,你没办法进行讨论  But how does a focus on memorizing prepare students  但对记忆能力的关注  for a world with over 1 trillion web pages?  怎么帮助学生适应如此大的信息量呢  What’s the value of memorizing materials  最新的信息都触手可及  when up-to-date information is available with searching tools in a matter of seconds?  记忆材料的价值又在哪呢  And memorization skill is not all that is needed. 只具备记忆这一技能是不够的  What other skills do students need to be able to function in a world of hyper information?  在超信息世界里学生还需要哪些技能呢  This is an incredibly important issue that we have to think about deeply  这一问题值得我们深思  if we hope to fulfill our job to prepare students for the future that awaits them.  如果我们想帮助学生为未来做好准备的话  The changing nature of information in the modern world is a pressing issue for educators.  教育者们必须注意到当今世界信息的本质已经改变  It directly affects the skills that students will need for success when they leave us.  这直接影响到学生获得成功所需要的技能  And therefore, it directly affects the way we teach today.  因此也直接影响到我们今天的教学方式  We simply cannot ignore this trend.  我们不能简单忽略这一趋势  4 影响教育的发展动态趋势二:工作岗位的 变化  The second trend I want to look at this morning is the changing world of work.  今天早上我想讲的第二个趋势是工作岗位的变化  This is a trend that many educators overlook,  很多教育者都忽视了这一趋势  because our days are full enough with just running our classrooms in our schools.  因为我们每天都在学校  We rarely get the chance lift our head to look at what’s happening outside the school system,  很少会看到学校以外发生了什么  because we are so busy.  因为我们实在太忙  But the world today is very different one from the world that most of us grew up in.  但是今天的世界和我们长大的世界是很不一样的  For example,  比如说  the world I grew up in was a very stable world.  我长大的世界是很稳定的  When I grew up, there was an incredible rhythm to life.  在我的成长过程中生活有稳定的节奏  My father drove his car on the driveway to work every morning at 8:15.  我父亲每天早上 8 点 15 分开车去工作  He pulled his car back on the driveway every night at 6:30.  每天晚上 6 点半开车回家 You could set your watch by it.  你都可以设好时钟  And my father worked for the same company for over 40 years,  我父亲在同家公司工作了 40 多年  pretty much doing the same thing year after year.  每年的工作都基本一样  But today,  但今天  disruptive innovation has so greatly altered the world  颠覆性创新极大改变了世界  that it would be unrecognizable to my father.  我父亲可能都认不出这个世界了  It is a completely different world.  这是一个完全不同的世界  A world where stability that has been replaced by constant change.  以前的稳定已经被不断的变化取代  Let’s look at what happened.  我们看看发生了什么  For the longest time, riding to the ladder half of the 20th century  长期以来直到 20 世纪中期  a major driver for the economy in the developed world was the factory job  推动发达国家经济发展的主要驱动力是工厂的工作  and the factory mindset for workers.  以及工厂思维  But this type of job has been disappearing in the globe for decades.  但这种工作正在全球范围内销声匿迹  Why?  为什么  Because technological innovation has made it possible  因为科技创新使得这种工作可以这样完成  for this kind of work to be done by anybody anywhere in the world.  即由任何人在任何地方完成  And while labor is cheaper not in the developed world,  发达国家的劳动力不便宜  but in place like here in China.  在中国也如此  and today, even cheaper places like Vietnam, India, Bangladesh,  甚至在劳动力比较廉价工资低下的第三世界国家也是如此  Pakistan, Mexico and other low-wage third world countries.  如越南印度孟加拉巴基斯坦墨西哥  There has been one exception by the way to this mass accident of jobs,  顺便提下工作岗位的变化有一个例外  work that is tied to its place,  受工作地点限制的工作 Work that we say is location dependent.  也就是我们所说的依赖工作地点的工作  This includes work in the construction industry, carpenters,  包括建筑工人木匠  plumbers, electricians, metal fabricators,  水管工人电工金属制造工人  also truck drivers and miners, oil rig workers, barbers, cooks,  卡车司机矿工石油钻探工人理发师厨师  delivery service workers, auto technicians, restaurant workers,and cleaning staff,  速递工人汽车修理工人餐厅工作人员和清洁工  just to name a few.  这只是一小部分  All these blue-collar jobs require workers to be on site to do their work.  这些蓝领工作都要求工人到现场工作  Some of these jobs have been affected by the recent ups-and-down of the economy,  其中一些工作受到最近经济波动的影响  there continues to be a strong demand  但在发达国家  for location dependent blue-collar workers in the developed world.  对这些受工作地点限制的蓝领工作需求还是很大的  The same strong demand, however, is not the case for white-collar jobs.  对白领工作的需求就没有这么大了  White-collar office and management jobs are quickly disappearing from the economy.  白领办公室和管理工作将很快从经济中消失  In fact, it is estimated that90% of current white-collar jobs in North America will likely  事实上据估计现在北美 90%的白领工作  disappear in the next 10 to 15 years.  可能在未来 10 到 15 年销声匿迹  Innovation of powerful software toolsthat will replace white-collar workers  即将取代白领工作的先进软件工具  is already disrupting traditional ways of doing business.  已经在颠覆传统的经营模式  Digital tools are making possible for fewer workers to do much more work.  数字工具使少数工人完成更多任务成为可能  But there is another reason that these white-collar jobs are disappearing.  白领工作消失也有另外一个原因  Even if the workers are not replaced by software tools,  即使白领工人不被软件工具取代  they are still at risk of having their work outsourced to workers in the third world countries.  他们的工作也有可能被外包给第三世界国家  The reason that these jobs can be outsourced  这些工作之所以被外包  is that many tasks done by white-collar workers is what we call routine cognitive work.  是因为白领从事的都是常规认知工作 Routine cognitive work is anything that involves repetitive mental tasks.  常规认知工作指的是任何涉及重复性脑力活动的工作  Routine cognitive work includes people doing bookkeeping and taxes,  常规认知工作包括图书管理员税收工作人员  Call center workers, receptionists, help-desk for customer support workers;  呼叫服务员工接待员帮助平台员工  but it also includes computer programmers, legal researchers, some engineering work,  也包括编程员法律调查员和一些工程类工作  even people who interpret MRI and X-rays do routine cognitive work.  甚至那些分析核磁共振和 X 光片的工人也包括在内  Did you know that if you had a MRI scan done recently,  如果你最近做过核磁共振你是否知道  there is more than 70% chance  你的分析有 70%的可能性  that the analysis of that MRI is outsourced to workers in Pakistan?  是外包给巴基斯坦人做的  All of this kind of routine cognitive work workers  所有从事这类常规认知工作的工人  do the same mental tasks over and over again.  都在不断重复同样的脑力任务  This work not only can, but will be outsourced as we move further in the 21st  century,  随着时间的推移这些工作不仅可能也会被外包  because we live in a hyper-connected, hyper disruptive world.  因为我们整个世界已经非常紧密的联系在一起  Routine cognitive workers must not only compete with people  常规认知工人不仅要和其他城市  in the next city, the next region, or next state,  其他省或地区的工人竞争  they must also compete with an extensive global labor pool of inexpensive workers.  他们还得和全球的廉价劳动力竞争  For example, Odesk.  比如说 Odesk 网站  The Odesk website allows employers to assemble virtual globalwork team  这个网站让雇主可以基于项目在网上组建  on a project-by-project basis.  来自世界各地的员工队伍  At the Odesk website, there is literally millions of private contracts  这个网站有数百万计的私人合同  around the world offering services in every imaginable white-collar work category.  覆盖白领工作的各项内容  For example, our consulting company, Info7021,  比如说,我们的咨询公司  recently put out a request for web designers at Odesk.  最近在 Odesk 上发布了一则网页设计师招聘启事 Within 20 minutes, we have 230 applicants from all over the world.  不到 20 分钟我们就收到来自全世界 230 份申请  We ended up hiring the guy named Jimmy White.  最后我们决定聘请这个叫 Jimmy 的小伙子  Here is Jimmy working on a project.  这是他在工作的照片  Jimmy is from Shanghai, China.  他来自中国上海  But what you need to know  你要知道  is that he could easily have been from Venezuela, Nigeria, or Kuwait  我们也可以轻易找到来自委内瑞拉尼日利亚或科威特的员工  So the new workplace reality is that the white collar work can be outsourced.  所以现实情况就是白领工作可以被外包  Beyond this,  除此之外  it’s important to see that due to disrupting innovation,  也应看到由于颠覆性创新  the nature of white-collar work is very different today as well.  白领工作的本质也跟以前不一样  Today’s economy is increasingly built on a global people cloud.  今天的经济越来越多依赖全球合作  That cloud is completely based on the Internet,  这样的全球合作也依赖于网络  and it is rapidly transforming the very nature of work.  而且在迅速改变工作的本质  It’s amazing.  这些都令人咋舌。  We are quickly moving from companies with hundreds, thousands of permanent workers  公司正迅速从拥有几百几千名永久员工  to companies that engage temporary employees  向拥有短期员工转变  like we did with Jimmy White.  就像我们聘请 Jimmy 一样  Companies and individuals are coming together in a temporary networks  公司和个人通过临时网络共同合作  to sell goods and services.  销售产品和服务  Then, when the job finished, the network dissolves,  任务完成的时候这一网络也就解除  and the members of the network become independent again.  各成员回归相互独立状态  They then recirculate through the economy looking for the next assignment.  重新寻找下一个任务 As a result of this shift,  由于这样的转变  increasingly the fundamental unit of the new economy is no longer the corporation.  新经济的基本单位不再是公司  It’s the individual worker.  而是工人个体  According to this report published in April, 2015 by Oxford University entitled A Smart Move  牛津大学 2015 年 4 月的这份报告指出  in Great Britain, Australia and the United States,  在英国澳大利亚和美国  the point at which the labor market has more freelancers than full-time employees  自由雇员的数量将超过全职员工  is between 5 to 10 years away.  这是劳工市场在未来 5 到 10 年内趋势  let me say that again.  我想重复一下  the point at which our labor market has more freelancers,independent contractors,  自由雇员的或个体员工的数量将超过全职员工  individual workersthan full-time employees is between 5 to 10 years away  这是劳工市场在未来 5 到 10 年内的趋势  Even the location of work place has changed.  连工作场所也发生了改变  Instead of workers coming to the work,  工人们不再去固定的地点工作  increasingly the work now comes to the workers  无论身处何时何地  whenever and wherever they are in the world,  他们都能接受工作任务  just like our work came to Jimmy here in China.  就像 Jimmy 在中国为我们工作一样  Disruptive new online technology is making organizing,  颠覆性网络技术让全球范围内的组织  managing and collaborating with a global team a simple task.  管理和合作变得轻而易举  But here is another trend we need to consider when we look at the global work.  在看全球工作的时候我们也必须注意到另外一个趋势  Work has not only been outsourced and offshored,  工作不仅被外包离岸  it has also been automated.  而且越来越自动化  For example,  比如  every time you use Expedia, or any other travel website to make a hotel reservation  你每次使用 Expedia 或其他旅游网站预订酒店 or to book an airline ticket,  或者预定机票的时候  or anytime you drop your mortgage number into a web form,  或你每次在网上的表格填写按揭号的时候  you have unintentionally taken away some jobs of some frontline routine cognitive workers.  你就已经在无意中夺走了一些重复性强的工作  Think about legal software or income tax preparation,  想想法律软件或个人所得税计算  many people are doing this themselves with the help of online software tools.  现在很多人借助网上的软件工具就能够独立完成  Today, if a job or task can be reduced to a mathematical algorithm,  今天如果一份工作或任务能被算法取代  it’s easy to produce robots, micro-chips or software  生产机器人微型芯片或软件是很简单的  that will do the job cheaper and faster.  而且它们能又快又廉价地完成工作  And when that happens  当它们被大量生产时  that segment of the job or the entire job itself vanishes forever.  这些工作岗位就会永远消失  Traditional factory floors were designed for mass production,  传统的厂房是根据大量生产设计的  as you can see in the picture,  就像这张图片一样  there were people sitting or standing in rows  人们坐或站成一排  all doing the same thing at the same time  在一样的时间里做一样的事情  not really connected to one another.  他们之间毫无联系  But no more,  这样的情况将不复存在  in the developed world,  在发达国家  gone forever are the days when 20% of the workers told 80% of the workers what to do.  20%的员工指使其他 80%的员工的日子已经一去不复返了  In this new economy in the developed world,  在发达国家的新经济中  80% of people are primarily managing their own work,  80%的人都掌控着自己的工作  and they are expected to be constantly  他们需要不断学习  learning about new process, concept and applications.  学习新的流程概念和应用 And increasingly, they are expected to work in temporary group of coworkers,  越来越多与临时伙伴共事  who collaborate on tasks that more often than not require intellectual,  并且更多的是从事需要智力  not physical capabilities  而非体力的工作  More and more workers today need mental skills  现在越来越多的工人需要脑力技能  in order to harness the power of technology to increase their productivity.  以运用科技的力量来提高生产力  Checkout this video of robots that replace the entire production line of workers.  看下这个视频机器人完全取代了整个生产线的工人  This is the picture of the same production line with one difference,  这是同个生产线的照片但有稍有不同  it shows you the human work force,  就是里面有人类  are you ready for it?  你们准备好了吗  One worker surrounded by dozens of robots  一个工人被十几个机器人包围  that have replaced the entire production force of workers.  这些机器人取代了整个生产队伍  This move to robotics has not only freed a lot of employees from manual labor,  向机器人的转变不仅让很多雇员免于手工劳动  it has also permanently removed a lot of jobs for people from their work place.  也永久地取代了一些人的工作  These jobs have been replaced by disruptive technologies  这些工作被颠覆性技术取代  that do the job faster and cheaper.  它们能以更快的速度更低的成本完成工作  The people who are left using different set of skills to utilize the power of new innovation.  幸存的人们只能使用不同的技能来运用创新的力量  Disruptive innovation has created a one half by two, by threeeconomy.  颠覆性创新带来了二分之一除 2 除 3 经济  There are half as many workers,  劳工人数减少了一半  this number reflects the mass exodus of jobs that have been lost in the downside,  这一数字就反映了下游的大量失业  the workers are getting paid twice as much money  但工资翻倍  which represents the increased concentration of highly skilled knowledge workers  这说明了高新科技人才  who command higher salaries.  将会成为高薪人群 These workers produce three times much of value  他们所创造出来的产出是传统产出的三倍以上  because they use new technology like software and robotics to be significantly more productive  因为他们借助技术如软件和机器人生产力显著提升  than those who cannot use the power of new technology.  超过那些无法借助新兴技术的人  And there is something happening in technology that we are seeing every day.  科技日新月异  Something that is new.  每天都有新技术出现  It’s getting smarter.  并且越来越智能  Take cars for example.  拿车来说  Modern cars are filled with smart systems.  现代汽车充满智能系统  Every time we step on the brake in a late modern car,  每一次踩刹车  a smart computer monitors what is happening in each of your tires,  车的智能电脑都会监控四个轮子的动向  and balances up the braking action between all four wheels from maximum braking effect.  做出相应的踩刹车调整  And now we have new cars being equipped with intelligent artificial parking system,  现在车还有自动停泊的系统  that will allow you to take your hands off the wheel,  无需人力停泊  and the intelligent system in the car  车里的智能系统  takes over to parallel park the car parallel with another car without the help of the driver  会自动将车停好  This smart technology is getting smarter every day.  这一技术也越来越智能  We can buy robots that can clean our floors.  我们也可以买扫地机器人  This is the braava robot developed by Irobot.  这是 Irobot 开发的一款机器人  You turn it on,  打开它  and it will intelligently clean your floor  它就会自动扫地  without bumping into your furniture or anything else that has been left on the floor.  而且不会碰到任何家具或地上的任何东西  Now remember, these devices work independently,  这些设备都是自主工作 no one is controlling it.  没人控制它们  It is making cleaning decisions on its own.  它们自己做出决定  Here is the video of the self-driving car developed by Google.  这是谷歌自动化驾驶系统的一个视频  What you need to know  大家要知道  is that this man who is about to sit in the driver’s seat is partially blind  司机是个盲人  and can no longer drive a car.  已经无法进行驾驶  What you need to know is that  大家需要知道的是  no one controls the car driving in to that drive-through restaurant.  车在驾驶当中是没有任何人进行控制的  The decisions to drive the car in were made by the car.  驾驶决策都是由车自己做出的  These robotic cars are amazingly capable.  这样一个非常棒的系统  They have driven over 1 million miles in downtown San Francisco  这些车在旧金山市区行驶公里数已经超过 1 百万英里  without any human interventions.  整个过程均无需人力介入  Here is the completely functional, artificial intelligent robot called BigDog  这是一个智能机器人叫 BigDog  made by Boston Dynamics.  由波士顿动力公司开发  This robots carries heavy equipment for soldiers.  这个机器人为士兵运输重型设备  And it is not controlled by operators.  而无需操作员控制  It has an autonomous thinking machine.  它能进行自主的思考  As you can see, it is incredibly capable of extraordinary balance  正如大家所看到的它还有非凡的平衡能力  This intelligent robot makes navigation decisions on its own,  这个智能机器人自主决定前进的方向  in order to follow soldiers in the field.  以随时跟进执行任务的士兵  This is the fully functional robot developed in Australia.  这是澳大利亚开发的一款全能机器人  They can build a brick house in two days.  它们能在两天内搭建起一栋房子 It can be programmed to leaving opening for doors, windows and garages.  并且可以通过编程让它们为门窗和车库留下敞开的空间  It works 24 hours a day, 365 days a year,  这个机器人能一年 365 天每天 24 小时工作  and will create brick walls  它们用砖砌起来的墙  that are straighter and even more even than any human hand can produce.  比人工砌的更直更平行  Then the Siri,  这是 Siri  this is the digital assistant software in iphones and ipads,  iphone 和 ipad 里面的语音助手  This is an intelligent piece of software that understands natural languages  这一款智能软件能理解任何自然语言  and gives intelligent responses  给出智能的回答  to assist people in accessing the content on their phones and on the Internet.  以帮助人们获得手机里或网上的信息  Right now, Siri is not perfect.  现在这个软件还不完善  For any of you that has used it, you know that,  如果你用过的话你就知道  but that’s not the point.  但重点不是这个  The point is that a reasonably functional artificial intelligent personal system already exists  重点是这样一个运行良好的私人智能系统确实存在  and one that responds to verbal request  而且能对口头要求作出回应  And this intelligent assistance is inexpensive enough  而且这款软件也不贵  to be affordable to the average person.  普通人也支付得起  Now I’ll throw exponential change into picture,  现在我想给大家看一下指数增长  and you’ll get a sense of something big that is going on here.  你可以从中感受到有重大情况正在发生  If we project exponentially where this smart robotic technology is heading,  如果我们能用指数型的方式来思考智能机器人技术所引领的未来  it reveals a startling different world.  我们可以看到一个完全不同的世界  We are just opening the door onto a world with full of robotic machines with capabilities  机器人普及刚刚起步  that most of us thought was just inside fiction movies.  它们拥有我们认为只存在于科幻电影中的技能 It is now easy to project  显而易见的是  that we are on the verge of seeing a whole new generation of robots with something  全新一代的机器人将出现  that we have never seen before.  并且拥有我们从未见过的技能  These robots will be able to think.  这些机器人能够思考  These new smart machines  这些智能机械  will quickly become an incredible useful tool for everyday people.  能迅速成为普通人非常有用的工具  Exponential development of their power  随着指数型增长  means that these devices will be very soon  就意味着这些设备将很快  not only able to recognize words,  不仅能够识别语言  they will be able to anticipate your needs and wants  且能预测您的需求  and they will be able to problem-solve issues that you encounter every day.  也能解决你每天遇到的问题  What you need to know is these autonomous robotic devices already exist today.  你要知道的是这些自主机器人今天已经存在  These are videos and images of ASIMO,  这是 ASIMO 的视频和图像  the artificially intelligent robot developed by Honda.  这个人工智能机器人是本田开发的  This device exists and provides us a glimpse of what’s coming very soon  这样的设备确实存在,通过它我们也能一瞥即将发生的事情  Of course, these new personal robots will be able to do heavy and dangerous work for us.  当然这些新的私人机器人能为我们干重活或危险的任务  But they are also interact with us,  但它们也和我们互动  they will become an integral part of our lives.  它们将成为我们生活中不可或缺的一部分  They will play with our children.  它们将和我们的孩子玩儿  They will serve us and do many of the tasks.  它们能为我们执行很多任务  Remember, this device which exists today,  记住这一今天就存在的设备  is completely not controlled by anything else.  是完全自主的 It is making decisions on its own.  能自主进行决策的  These devices will be able to intelligently help us manage our lives.  这些设备能够智能地帮助我们管理生活  This is Jibo, the world first family robot developed by MIT.  这是 Jibo 麻省理工开发的世界第一款家庭机器人  You can talk to this device and it will respond to you with facial recognition software.  你能和这个机器人说话它也会通过面部识别软件回应你  This device knows who you are and the way you want things.  这个机器人知道你是谁以及你的需求  Intelligent robotic devices like this  诸如此类的智能机器人  will be wirelessly connected to the information on the Internet.  能无线连接到网络  That means you will be able to ask it when you want to get a recipe for muffin  这就意味着当你在厨房做小松饼的时候  when you are working in the kitchen  你可以问它要菜谱  or ask it to tell you when the breaking news occurs,  或让它一旦有爆炸新闻就跟你报告  or when your investment goes up and down,  或当你的投资时起时落时跟你报告  or when the production lines is having problem,  或当生产线出现故障时跟你报告  or when the students hand in an assignment.  或当学生提交作业时跟你报告  If you are busy,  如果你在忙  you can have a screen phone call,  你能打视频电话  they can even talk to people for you.  这些机器人甚至能成为你的代言人  These devices will be able to display information directly on the head of the robot  这些设备将能直接在机器人头部展示信息  or beam information wirelessly to your computer or wide screen TV  或将信息无线发送到你的电脑或电视屏幕  or beam it to the display built in your multimedia glasses.  或发到你的多媒体眼镜  This means you will be able to interact with the digital personality  这就意味着你将能够跟数码人格进行互动  as it moves from device to device,  在不同的使用设备间转换  so now you can interact with the personality that is in the physical robot.  你能和有人格的机器人进行互动 or you can interact with the digital personality virtually  数码人格也可以是我们在电脑屏幕上所看到的一种虚拟的人格  on a form of online digital character that appears on your computer screen  数码人格也可以是我们在电脑屏幕上所看到的一种虚拟的人格  or have the software transfered wirelessly to the computer of your car  你也可以把软件无线传输到车里的电脑上  so your digital assistant sysem will always be with you.  因此你的数字助手会一直陪伴着你  And when we apply exponential thinking  当我们用指数型的方式思考这种人工智能设备所引领的未来  as we project where this kind of artificial intelligent device is heading,  当我们用指数型的方式思考这种人工智能设备所引领的未来  it is clear that learning  可以清楚看到  to live with these thinking devices will confront us much sooner than most people believe.  学会跟这些会思考的设备共同生活是我们很快就要面对的课题  Personal intelligent robotic assistance system  私人智能机器人  will soon become an indispensable part of our lives.  将很快成为我们生活中不可或缺的一部分  James Camp in his book The Extreme Future  在《极端未来》这本书中  devotes an entire section of the book to discussing  作者用了很大的篇幅讨论  the emergence of this kind of robots capable of independent thinking.  这种会独立思考的机器人的出现  Camp says, with decrease cost of computer chips  他说随着电脑芯片成本下降  and fast exponential increases in processing power,  处理能力大幅提高  all products in the future will have the capacity to think,  未来所有产品将有思考的能力  products will be connected and sense, talk, interact  它们将会相互关联、能够进行感知  and make decisions with humans and for humans.  并能跟人类交流互动和共同决策  We are going to have to get used to  未来我们要习惯  dealing with these powerful thinking machines in our lives.  应对生活中这些强大的会思考的机器  Now you might be thinking that I am completely crazy.  现在你可能觉得这是天方夜谭  But you need to know that there are many of these devices that are already here.  但是要知道很多诸如此类的设备今天也已经存在 And yes these devices today are very expensive,  这些设备是很贵  but that will change dramatically over the next few years.  但是未来几年价格一定会大幅下降  I project that an autonomous thinking robot will be available to consumers  我预计在这种会自主思考的机器人将会成为家用机器人  to use at their homes within 8 to 10 years.  在未来 8 到 10 年内  Further, I predict that these devices will attain sufficient intelligence  并且这些设备将拥有足够的智力  to significantly impact the world of work within 10 to 12 years.  来极大影响未来 10 到 12 年的工作岗位变化  As a society, and especially as educators,  作为教育者  we need to suit up on what this will mean for the work place.  我们要了解这对工作岗位来说意味着什么  For example, in a matter of a few years,  比如说未来几年  massive powerful intelligent robots, combined with 3D printing technology  巨大的智能机器人加上 3D 打印技术  will be capable of building customizable houses complete with water and plumbing and eating.  将有能力建造个性定制的房子  Robots will drive trucks.  机器人将驾驶卡车  They will cook meals.  它们将为我们烹饪  They will make beds.  为我们整理床铺  They will clean floors.  以及打扫  And here is the really importantpoint.  大家注意这个重要的点  This technology will target those location dependent jobs that are currently seen to be safe.  这一技术也将影响那些现在看起来很安全的受工作地点限制的工作  You may not be comfortable with this trend.  你可能不想接受这个趋势  but you need to know that this is only the beginning.  但你要知道现在只是开端  According to the Oxford university report that I cited earlier,  根据我刚刚提到的牛津大学的报告  the growing automation of knowledge work meansthat  自动化的发展意味着到 2030 年  2 billion jobs globally will be lost to software and robotics by the year 2030.  全球 20 亿工作将会由软件和机器人取代 Now that’s too important to miss.  这一点值得我们关注  Let me repeat that.  我想再重复一遍  the growing automation of knowledge work means that  自动化的发展意味着到 2030 年  2 billion jobs globally, 2 billion jobs globally  全球 20 亿工作  will be lost to software and robotics by the year 2030.  将会由软件和机器人取代  That’s just 15 years from now.  而那距离现在只有 15 年的时间  Isn’t that just about the time  那时不刚好就是  when the kids entering kindergarten this year are about to graduating?  今年进入幼儿园的孩子即将步入社会的时候么  Now some of the loss of those jobs will be soften by new jobs that are created,  现在新的就业岗位可以缓解一些岗位的消失  but they are going to be low-paid temporary variety  但都是些低薪的临时岗  The report goes on the say that 44%,  报告也指出现在澳大利亚 44%的工作  5.1 million jobs in Australia are currently at risk of  即 510 万份工作在未来 20 年  being affected by computerization and robotic technology over the next 20 years.  将受到电脑和机器人技术的冲击  Just stop for a moment and consider  停下来想想  what this could do the kind of jobs that will be available for the future.  这样的变革会如何影响未来的工作种类  A significant number of jobs will disappear.  许多工作岗位将不复存在  And those left would likely require a different set of skills that were not needed in the past.  而幸存的岗位可能需要人们掌握一套完全不同的技能  What will those skills be?  那些技能会是什么呢  There will a great need for people  未来社会将极大需要这样的人  who have a higher level of thinking and human creativity skills.  即那些拥有高水平的思考和创新技能的人  We are already seeing this in the world today.  这一点我们现在就已经可以看到  What about those people without high level of thinking skills?  那些没有高水平思考能力的人会怎样呢 The new global economy already provides fewer and fewer jobs for the poorly educated.  新经济中教育水平较低的人将有越来越少的工作机会  5 创新阶层工作的迅猛发展是经济中的新趋 势    And as we look to the future,  当我们展望未来  we can see thatincreasing choice for workers  我们可以看到  is that either they will have high level skills or they will get low-paid jobs.  没有高水平的技能就没法找到高薪的工作  More importantly,  更重要的是  if you project a little further in the future,  如果你再想远一点儿  you can see that many of those low-wage jobs will disappear completely.  可以看到很多低薪工作将完全消失  This should be a wakeup call for us,  这给我们敲响了警钟  those of us in education,  对我们教育者而言  what is the future for students only equipped the ability to memorize?  如果学生只有记忆技能他们的未来会是怎样的?  What will be the future for students who have only been equipped with technical skills  如果学生拥有的技能都能被智能机器取代  that can be done by a smart machine?  他们的未来又会是怎样的  Let’s explore this for a bit further.  我们再进一步看下这个问题  This is Richard Florida,  这是 Richard Florida  he is the author of the book called The Rise of the Creative Class  他写了《创造阶层》这本书  In his book Florida examines workplace change in the United States.  在书中作者考察了美国的岗位变化  His observation is interesting even here in China,  他的考察结果也适用于中国  because China is rapidly catching up to other developed countries.  因为中国正在飞速赶上其他发达国家 And it is critically important that  有一点至关重要  you recognize that these are global trends,  大家要认识到这些都是全球趋势  and that no country is immune to these global forces.  没有国家能免受影响  The trends are identified widely across the world.  很多国家也已经意识到这些趋势  He says we can divide the work force into four basic groups.  Florida 说我们可以把工作人群分为四个阶层  The first group in green is the agricultural class.  第一个阶层是农业阶层  In the year 1900, more than 40% of the US workers were involved in agriculture.  1900 年美国 40%的劳工都从事农业工作  Since then, there has been a steady decline in agriculture workers.  自那之后农业人口在不断下降  By the year 2010, automation has reduced that number to about 1% of the work force.  到 2010 年自动化已经将农业人口减少到劳动力的 1%  Farms and their work animals have been replaced by machines.  机器已经取代了农民和牲畜  The second group in red is the working class.  第二个阶层是工作阶层  There are the classic manufacturing labor, mining jobs,  经典的例子如制造工人或矿工  the blue-collar jobs that we talk about.  也就是所谓的蓝领阶层  The jobs only require basic skills to perform.  这些工作只要求非常基础的技能  These jobs peaked just after WWII.  像这样的工作在二战之后达到了顶峰  The problem with only basic skills is that the economy has shifted  但问题就在于经济已经转型  and there is less demand today for workers with only basic skills.  对只具备基本技能的工人的需求越来越小  Thousands of factories have closed in the United States in the last 20 years,  过去 20 年中美国很多工厂关门  throwing millions of people out of work.  数百万人因此失业  And this job loss is a global trend.  失业也是一种全球趋势  IN the past 24 months, thousands of factories have been closed in China,  在过去 24 个月中国很多工厂也关门  Throwing more than 20 million workers out of work.  超过 2000 万人因此失业 The third group is in orange.  第三阶层是橙色这块儿  And these are location dependent workers.  这些是受工作地点限制的工作人群  These are the service workers, construction workers, truck drivers, the service industry,  比如服务人群建筑工人卡车司机  helping professionals, people who do routine cognitive work.  辅助人员等从事“常规认知工作”的人员  As you can see, this type of job peaked in 1980,  大家可以看到这种工作 1980 年达到峰值  and are now steadily shrinking.  现在便平稳下降  The fourth group in purple, is what Richard Florida call the creative people.  第四个阶层就是 Richard Florida 说的创新阶层  These are people who regularly do non-routine cognitive work,  这个阶层一般不从事常规认知工作  and consistently apply 21 century higher level creative thinking skills in their work.  他们不断把 21 世纪的高水平创新和思考技能运用到工作中  There were not many of these workers in the year 1900.  在 1900 年的时候这样的工人并不多  But the economy has shifted.  但经济已经转型  By 2010, this is the fastest growing segment of the work force.  到 2010 年这是劳工队伍中增长速度最快的  Since this graph illustrates what are now the global trends,  这个图表阐明了未来的全球趋势  this is what you can expect in the work force here in China in the very near future.  这也是中国工作人口今后的走向  Now I want to look at what happen in the service and creative classes,  我还想看看在服务行业以及创新方面产生的趋势  particularly what has happened since 1980.  我还想看看在服务行业以及创新方面产生的趋势  Since then, these lines are going in opposite directions,  自那时起两条线是往相反方向走的  they are inverse trends.  它们是相反的趋势  that’s because personal computers and other disrupting technologies appeared about 1980,  这是因为在 1980 年个人电脑及其他颠覆性技术出现了  and they had a huge impact on the work force.  极大影响了工作人口  It is important that you understand what disrupting technology does to work.  大家要知道颠覆性创新对劳动力带来的冲击  Service class jobs are replaced by technologies,  服务行业的工作正在被科技取代 while creative class jobs are facilitated by technologies.  技术助力创新型工作  That’s because creative class jobs require skills that cannot be replaced by technology  因为创新阶层的工作无法被技术取代  Those skills can only be augmented, or enhanced by disrupting technologies  技术不断助力创新阶层技能的发展  Creative class jobs primarily require what we refer to as headwork skills.  创新阶层的工作首先要求脑力技能  Headwork skills are things like critical thinking, problem solving,  包括批判性思维解决问题  information processing, creativity, innovation, collaboration.  处理信息创造力创新和团队合作能力  The rapid growth in creative class jobs is an entirely new development in economy.  创新阶层工作的迅猛发展是经济中的新趋势  6 学生们需要终身长期技能而非短期技能  But today  今天  new creative class jobs require these headwork skills that are being created every day.  新型创新阶层工作需要日新月异的头脑技能  Take the apps economy for example.  拿应用产业来说  In 2007, no one would have considered a career as an apps developer,  2007 年没有人把开发应用当做是一种职业  because the apps economy didn’t exist until 2008,  因为应用产业要到 2008 年才存在  when Apple released the software development kit for the iphone and up at the app store.  那时苹果公司为 iphone 推出软件开发工具箱和应用商店  But in just 7 years  在短短 7 年时间里  800,000 jobs have been created in the United States alone in the apps industry.  应用产业就为美国创造了 80 万个就业机会  Now let’s convert it into a graph  如果把 Richard Florida 的想法转换成柱状图  So it looks like this.  那应该是这样的  And you can see the steady decline in agriculture in green bar,  大家可以看到绿色这块在稳步下降  and the steady growth of the creative class in purple in the top  而创新阶层也就是紫色那块在稳步增长  If you look closely at this data,  如果你再仔细看下这些数据 you will see that we will face a fundamental problem in education.  你可以看到教育将面临的一个根本问题  The schools that we have today were designed  今天的学校是基于以前的经济需求设计的  when the world had a much different economy,  但现在的情况已经大不一样了  one based on 3/4 of the work force in agriculture and manufacturing.  以前四分之三的劳动力都从事农业和制造业  Schools were designed to prepare students for this work force.  学校都旨在培养这样的人才  The focus of that instruction was to prepare students for that world,  教育的目的是为那时的需求培养人才  and the skills needed are literally illiteracy skills  当时需要的技能可以说是“不用知识的”  and the ability to memorize, the ability to follow orders  需要记忆的能力遵从规定的能力  and in many cases physical labor.  而且大多数情况下都是体力劳动  But today, we have to prepare students for a new economy.  今天我们要培养能适应新经济的学生  One for 3/4 of the work force in service class, or creative class jobs.  四分之三的劳动力都在从事服务或创造行业  An economy of creative class jobs are expected to be 50% of the work force within 5 years.  未来 5 年创造行业预计将占到劳动力队伍的一半  However, schools around the world continue to operate  但是学校却在继续 100 多年前发展起来的教育理念  on the same instructional assumptions that were developed over 100 years ago.  但是学校却在继续 100 多年前发展起来的教育理念  This is a recipe of disaster for students.  这对学生来说是一场悲剧  They are graduating in the 21st  century,  他们在 21 世纪毕业  but we are equipping them with skills targeted for the past.  却只有过时的技能  This prompted David Burnley to say,  所以 David Burnley 说  No generation of students have been so thoroughly prepared  没有一代学生像现在的学生一样  for the 20th  century as the current generation.  如此认真地为 20 世纪做准备  We face a monumental task to bring our schools into line of realities of the modern world.  我们要让学校符合现代社会的现实要求  No longer can we expect students to get everything they need  我们不能再期望学生在青年时期 for their entire lives from schooling in their youth.  就能学到他们一辈子需要的技能  In place of the old model of one chunk learning when we are young,  以前人们只在青年时期高强度学习  we are now in a place where people must learn their whole lives.  现在我们必须终身学习  If there is one certainty of what students will be doing  20 年后学生将在做什么  at two decades from now,  如果存在一个确定回答的话  it’s that they won’t be doing the same thing.  那就是他们将从事不一样的工作  And they certainly won’t be drawing the same body of knowledge.  而且可以肯定的是他们将运用到不同的知识体系  Disruptive innovation has changed the working world so dramatically,  颠覆性创新已经极大改变了工作世界  and so quickly, it is taking educators by surprise.  变化如此之快让教育者们始料未及  Schools continue to focus on the same traditional skills they have for a long time,  但是学校却仍在关注传统的技能  not realizing that there are new skill demand in the world outside the school system.  而没有意识到学校体系外新的技能需求  And this is also the case for universities.  大学的情况也是这样  Thomas Friedman who wrote the book The World Is Flat,  托马斯写了一本书叫《世界是平的》  states that the skills students need to success in universities are a different set of skills,  他说学生在大学取得成功需要的是一套不同的技能  not to mention a lesser set of skills than those needed  更不用说他们毕业后想在生活和工作中  to be successful in life and work after graduate from university  获得成功所需的技能  The ripples of change from disruptive innovation  颠覆性创新带来的涟漪效应  are causing a shift in workplace skills at an amazing speed.  正在迅速改变职场所需的技能  The US department of Labor Study suggests that  美国劳工部指出  50% of worker skills become outdated within 3 to 5 years.  未来 3 到 5 年 50%的技能将过时  This means that learning a necessary year-round activity, constant learning is mandatory  这就意味着活到老学到老是必须的  because it’s the only assurance for individuals and groups  因为这样可以保证个人和集体 have against being blind sighted by disruptive innovation.  不会因为颠覆性创新的冲击而迷失方向  It is becoming increasingly clear that  可以清楚看到  the kind of skills the students need to learn  学生们需要的技能  are what have been referred to as long-life skills, not short-life skills.  是终身长期的技能而非短期技能  Short-life skills are related to the skills of memorization of specific content,  短期技能跟记忆特定内容  or the learning of strict procedures  或者学习严格的流程相关  Short-life skills quickly cease be relevant,  短期技能很快就跟现实脱节  particularly when you live in an age of disruptive innovation and disposable information.  特别是我们处在颠覆性创新和信息爆炸的时代  Today, both in life and workplace,  今天无论生活还是工作  there is far more emphasis being placed on long-life skills.  终身技能越来越受重视  Long-life skills are things like self-learning, creativity, critical thinking,  终身技能包括自主学习创造力批判性思维  and those skills I have mentioned before.  以及我刚刚提到的技能  Long-life skills are skills that can be applied over and over again through all your life  终身技能是那些你可以在一生中反复运用的技能  because they never expire.  因为它们永远不会过期  A recent study in the United States indicates that  美国最近一项调查表明  over 60% of the managers they surveyed said that long-life skills are the most important factor  they consider  超过 60%的被访经理说在招募员工或评估员工表现时  when hiring and when evaluating an employee’s performance.  他们最看重的是雇员的终身技能  The problem for educators is that  对教育者而言  long-life skills are a very different set of skills from those we focus in schools.  问题就在于终身技能跟学校关注的技能存在很大差异  It is ly clear that  可以肯定的一点是  we can no longer just continue to teach students facts,  我们不能继续只给学生教授事实  and expect students just to regurgitating it back to us, 然后希望他们重复给我们  because so many of the facts in the world change so quickly.  因为现在很多事实都变得很快  It is projected that  据预计  our students are going to deal with more than 10 different careers in their lives,  我们学生在一生中将从事十多份不同的职业  consequently they have to replace almost the entire body of knowledge  因此在他们职业生涯的不同阶段  several times during their working lives.  他们必须建立起不同的知识框架  I apologize this sounds cruel  不好意思这听起来很残酷  but increasingly the world doesn’t care what you know or what you memorize,  但是现实却不在乎你知道或记住什么  because almost everything is instantly available in Baidu or Google  因为几乎所有的信息都可以在百度或谷歌上迅速找到  if you have effective searching skills.  只要你有有效的搜索工具  Increasingly, the world will only cares,  现实只关注  and will only pay for what you can do with what you know.  也只会支付你能基于你所知道的做什么  But to be able to do productive work  要想让你所做的富有成效  with what you know requires long-life skills, not just short-life skills.  就要有终身技能而不是短期技能  The shift to an emphasis on long-life skills was outlined in the recent article  最近 Cassel 和 Costello 在《教育心理学期刊》上发表的文章  by Cassel and Costelloin the Journal of Instructional Psychology.  也着重强调了终身技能  Their researchrevealed that in the 1970s,  他们的调查指出在 20 世纪 70 年代  the top three skills sought by Fortune Top 500 companies  世界 500 强要求的三大技能  were basically illiteracy skills, reading, writing and arithmetic.  是阅读写作和算术  But the year 2015, the top three skills in demand  但在 2015 年最需要的三大技能  are teamwork, problem solving and interpersonal skills.  是团队合作解决问题和人际交往技能  We need schools that are developing these skills,  学校应该培养学生的这三大技能  because the economyhas shifted. 因为经济已经转型  Today our most critical assets are no longer minerals, grain,  今天我们最重要的资产不再是矿产粮食  wood or other agricultural products.  木材或其他农业产品  The most critical asset we have is the highly educated technological  最重要的资产是终身学习者创造的高科技  and literate work forceof life-long learners,  和高水平的成果  learners who had been equipped with long-life skills  这些学习者拥有技能终身受用  that they can apply again and again over their entire lives.  这些学习者拥有技能终身受用  7 保障未来的 9 大终身技能  So what exactly are these long-life skills?  终身技能是什么呢  Skills that are available now and will remain valuable 50 years from now  终身技能是现在可获得并且在 50 年后  when students are retiring from their careers.  也就是我们的学生退休的时候仍然很宝贵的技能  I have discovered that there are 9 skills that are future proof  我找到了可以保障未来的 9 大技能  9 skills that will empower individuals to obtain life-long success.  这 9 大技能将让个人能够取得终身的成功  I don’t know how these are translated into Chinese,  我不知道这 9 大技能怎么译成中文  but in English, each of the names of these skills begin with an letter I.  但在英语这 9 大技能的首字母都是 I  So I call them the 9 I’s.  所以我把它们叫做 9I  And although each of them is an entire workshop long,  如果每一个技能都展开讲的话需要比较长的时间  let me give you a brief review of them right now.  这里我只跟大家简要介绍一下  The first I is intrapersonal skills.  第一个是自我沟通技能  Intrapersonal skills are the internal skills that take place inside a person.  自我沟通技能指的是一个人与自我内在沟通的技能  Skills like patience, self-confidence, open mindedness, being able to manage emotions.  比如耐心自信开放能够控制自己的情绪  These skills, although they are not skills that we focus on in schools, 虽然这些不是学校关注的技能  in fact are the most important skills that we inculcate in our students.  它们却是我们灌输给学生的最重要的技能  Intrapersonal skills also include skills needed to be a productive person,  自我沟通技能也包括能让自己更富有成效的技能  like how to learn,  比如如何学习  how to take initiatives,  如何积极主动  how to overcome boredom and self-motivate  如何克服空虚并自我鼓励  how to manage your time,  如何管理时间  how to evaluate your own work,  如何评估自己的工作  how to set long-term goals.  符合树立长期目标  The second I is interpersonal skills.  第二个 I 是人际交往技能  Interpersonal skills are the skills we use every day to communicate  人际交往技能指的是我们每天运用的  and interact with other people both individually or in groups.  跟其他个人或团体沟通互动的技能  Interpersonal skills include such things as the ability to conduct productive conversations,  人际交往技能包括有能力建立起有效的对话  the ability to listen, understanding non-verbal communication  能够倾听理解别人的言外之意  be able to persuade, debate, convince, sell or defend a position.  能说服别人辩论让别人信服销售自己或捍卫自己的立场  the ability to ask questions  能提问  being able to communicate respectfully  能尊重他人  being able to accept criticism  能接受批评  being able to give criticism constructively  能给出建设性的批评  and being able to be assert yourself  能自我维护  The third I is independent problem solving skills.  第三个 I 是独立解决问题的技能  Learning effective thinking strategies for solving problems  学会有效的解决问题的思考策略  will equip students with powerful tools for the modern world. 将成为学生强大的工具  People with these skills will be sought after  拥有这种技能的人将受追捧  because there are such need for problem solvers in the world today.  因为当今社会非常需要能解决问题的人  Students must be taught a structured mental process  我们必须教给学生组织严密的思考步骤  they can follow to solve problems.  他们可以根据这个步骤来解决问题  Just like there is a structured process to follow when they have some writing to do.  就像在写作的时候给他们一个组织严密的步骤一样  I have developed such a process for students called the 4 D’s.  我为学生们制定了四个步骤简称 4D  Again, I don’t know how they can be translated into Chinese.  我也不知道这四个步骤译成中文是怎样的  but in English, the names of each of these steps begin with the same letter D.  但在英语里每个步骤的首字母都是 D  These represent the four essential steps anyone can follow to solve a problem.  这四个步骤代表解决问题的四个基本步骤  They are  它们是  define a problem  定义问题  design a solution  设计解决方案  do the work  采取行动  debrief the process when you are done  反省自己所采取的步骤  The forth I is interdependent collaboration skills  第四个 I 是相互合作技能  Being able to work with co-workers on a project has always been an important skills.  在一个项目中能与伙伴合作一直以来都是非常重要的技能  Because by working together,  因为通过合作  a group can be more productive than individual.  团队的生产力要比个人的高  interdependent collaboration skills include such things as  相互合作技能  being able to organize functional team members who can complement one another  包括能够建立起相辅相成的职能队伍  being able to criticize ideas without criticizing individuals  能够对事不对人  negotiating within a team 与队员协商  group brainstorming  进行头脑风暴  group problem-solving  团队解决问题  listening and listening to feedback  善于倾听接受反馈  and taking responsibilities to designated tasks  对指定任务抱有高度的责任感  And today, with global online communication and shared productivity tools,  今天得益于全球网络沟通及共享工具  collaborating with people on projects using tools like Skype, and go to meeting  通过使用诸如 Skype 等工具与他人进行项目合作或开会  and Google docs are adding a new dimension for modern collaboration  给现代合作增加了一个新的层面  You have to work collaboratively with people who aren’t physically there  你必须跟不在现场的人合作  Learning the skills to function effectively in virtual work group  学会在虚拟团队中高效工作  has already become an essential skill in the modern world.  已经成为当今世界一个基本技能  The fifth I is information investigation skills.  第五个 I 是信息检索技能  Today we are drowning in data,  现在信息爆炸  but starve for knowledge.  我们渴望知识  What the world need is people who can investigate a specific topic,  我们需要的是那些能对特定话题进行调查的人  Find the data that is pertinent to their investigation,  找到跟他们调查相关的数据  and then determine the meaning of all the data they have  接着利用高水平思考加工信息  retrieved by processing that information by higher level thinking.  确定他们检索到的数据的意义  We want student to comprehend what they find,  我们希望学生能够理解他们找到的数据的意义  not just regurgitating  而不只是重复  We want students to demonstrate understanding,  我们希望学生能展现出他们的理解力  not robotically echo formula learning  而不是像机器人一样机械性地重复  We want them to apply what they have learnt 我们希望学生能学以致用  not just acquire theoretical knowledge  而不只是习得理论知识  And just like problem-solving,  就像解决问题一样  students must learn a structured mental process  学生也必须学会一套组织严密的步骤  to follow when doing information investigation  以进行信息检索  We have developed such a process called the 5A’s  我们制定了五个步骤,叫 5A  These represent the five essential steps to do information processing  这五个步骤代表信息检索的五个基本步骤  They are  它们是  ask questions about the task  对任务进行提问  access and acquire the raw data  寻找及获得原始数据  analyze the data for relevance  分析数据的相关性  apply what you have found to the task you have to deal with  将找到的数据应用到任务中  and assess the process when you are done  评估自己的表现  The sixth I is information communication skills  第六个 I 是信息沟通技能  Most of us grew up communicating by reading and writing texts  在我们的成长过程中很多人使用读写沟通  Even today schools primarily focus on learning how to communicate with texts  甚至今天的学校也首要关注如何与课文进行沟通  However, in the world outside school,  但是在学校之外,  communicating solely using texts has been superseded by communication  仅仅依赖课文的沟通  that uses text plus graphic design  已经被课文+图表的沟通方式所取代  And for kids today that are growing up in the Youtube era,  而且今天的孩子是跟着 Youtube 一起成长  communication has moved further to a video standard  沟通已经延伸到视频层面  Young people today are immersed in a world of full motion videos  年轻人已经沉浸在充满视频的世界里  They watch videos for entertainment and to learn 他们看视频来娱乐学习  All this have changed the skills people need to be effective consumers  这些都改变了人们想成为高效的沟通消费者  and producers of communication in the world today  和生产者所需的技能  Modern information communication skills include  现代信息沟通技能包括  an understanding of graphic design  能够理解图表设计  an understanding of typography  能够理解排版背后的含义  an understanding of effective use of color  能够理解色彩的有效利用  an understanding of photo composition  能够理解图像的构成  an understanding of video composition  能够理解视频的构成  an understanding of production  能够理解成果  These are all skills students need to function effectively in the modern world  这些都是学生们需要的技能以在现代社会中高效活动  The seventh I is imagination creativity skills  第七个 I 是想象力和创新技能  There are four aspects for imagination creativity  想象力和创新技能有四个方面  First, imagination creativity skills can be used to communicate ideas more powerfully  首先这一技能使想法的传达更有力  The goal here is to use an alternate medium to  目的就在于使用其他媒介  get people to consider an idea in a different way  让人们用不同的方式思考  So instead of talking the topic or communicating on a standard report or essay format  因此我们不再用标准的报告或格式来谈论一个话题  you can write a poem or compose a song  你可以作诗或作曲  you can shoot a video  你可以拍视频  develop a script for a play  写剧本  or create a poster  或设计海报  You could make a website, paint a painting or create a sculpture  你也可以设计一个网站画幅画或刻个雕像  In other words, using an alternate method of communication 也就是说利用不同的沟通方法  to make people see things from a different perspective  让人们从不同的角度看待事物  The second aspect of imagination creativity  其次  is coming out creative designs of how things function  对事物的运行方式进行创造性的设计  The intuitiveness of the design of an interface for using a new electronic device, for example,  比如说为一个新的电子设备设计界面  or how to design an airport terminal that allows large people flow within the building  或设计机场航站楼以容纳更多的人流量  The third aspect of imagination creativity  再次  is how you can use design to convey meaning  通过设计传递意义  and add value of something beyond its functions  为东西增值  For example,  比如说  Apple adds value to their products through exterior shape of their technology  苹果公司通过外观设计提升产品价值  to make them more desirable than those of their competitors  打败竞争对手  The idea is that there are lots of companies that made computers  这里的理念是很多公司都做电脑  but there is only one company that makes Apple computers  但只有一家公司做苹果电脑  Ford makes their vehicles desirable with the exterior design of their cars  福特也通过外观设计使车辆更招人喜欢  Another example would be adding meaning and value  另外通过设计一栋建筑的外观  through the design of the exterior shape of a building,  或一座房子的布局或外观  or the layout or design of the exterior of a house  也可提升意义和价值  The fourth aspect of imagination creativity  最后  goes beyond adding values to functional things  创造力不止为事物增加价值  This is about creating value purely from beauty  也可单纯从美中创造价值  This is why people buy a sculpture, or a work of art, or a piece of music  这就是为什么人们会购买一座雕像一件艺术品或一首歌的原因  The product doesn’t have to serve a function 产品不一定要具备某一功能  Its value can come purely form shape, its color, its texture, or its sound.  它们的价值可单纯来自性状颜色质地或声音  These skills can’t be taught just like other skills.  这些技能不能跟其他技能一样教授  However  但是  teaching these skills have not been a major focus in schools in my observation.  据我观察这些技能没有得到学校的重视  And this must change  这一点必须得到改变  if we hope to prepare students for the world of the future  如果我们想让学生为未来做好充足的准备的话  The 8th  I is innovation creativity  第八个 I 是创新及创造力  Innovation creativity focuses on how things function  创新及创造力关注事物如何运行  The core of innovation thinking is how to make things better  创新思维的核心就是如何让事物变得更好  However, there is a major misconception  但是人们有这样一个误解  that the ability to innovate is genetic  就是创造力是天生的  that some people have it  有的人有  and some people don’t  有的人没有  This is simply untrue.  这不是真的  Certainly there are some people who are better at innovating than others  当然有的人更善于创新  but all of us have the capacity to come out with new ideas  但我们所有人都有想出新主意的能力  For example,  比如说  have you ever watched someone doing a task, like loading a truck?  大家有没有看过别人执行一项任务比如说给卡车装车  or how the textbooks are distributed in your high school  或贵校是如何发课本的  and thought to yourselves,  然后一边看一边想  I don’t think I would do it this way  要是我我就不会这么做  If they did, they would save time and energy 如果他们用我的方法做的话会更省时省力  That is innovation skills  这就是创新技能  and there is a great need for this kind of creative, innovative thinking skills in the world today  今天社会很需要这种创新思考技能  This kind of innovative skills cannot be dug out if we don’t make a priority  如果我们不注重的话这种创新能力是没法被挖掘出来的  The key skill is to be able to generate ideas,  主要的技能是能够产生想法  to be able to think freely without fear failure  能自由思考而不害怕失败  There is a great need for teachers to create an environment in their class  我们需要教师能在课堂中创造这样一种氛围  that fosters this kind of creative thought  来培养学生额创造性思维  where students can come up with new ideas  在这样氛围中新主意层出不穷  without worrying being right or fearing about what happens if they are wrong  学生们也无需担心对错  And the 9th I is internet citizen skills  第 9 个 I 是网络公民技能  You would not give your kids the keys to drive a car  在你孩子学会开车之前  without teaching them how to drive, would you?  你是不会给他车钥匙的对吗  Instead, due to the seriousness of driving a motor vehicle,  由于驾驶机动车辆还是比较严肃的  you will first outline the expectation and identify  你首先会向孩子说明  the consequences from inappropriate actions  不当操作可能带来的后果  Then you will give them some guidance to practice  然后你会给他一些指导  so they can develop their driving skills safely  这样他们就能培养起安全行驶的技能  Only then will you give them the keys of the car  只有到那时你才会给他们车钥匙  But every day parents and teachers give their kids smart phones and other digital devices  但今天父母和家长给他们孩子可上网的智能手机和其他数码设备时  that have access to the Internet without proper guidance  却没有给予适当的指导  And without that guidance  没有这样的指导  some people inevitably do stupid and dangerous things 有些人不可避免会做出一些愚蠢或危险的行为  sometimes resulting in tragic, global consequences  有时会导致悲剧或影响全球的后果  So it’s important that we teach young people how to use these tools safely  所以告诉学生如何安全使用这些工具非常重要  There are three guidance principles that young people must be taught about using the Internet  以下是必须教给青年人的三个上网指导方针  They are  它们是  how to protect yourselves in the online world  如何在网络世界中保护自己  how to respect others in the online world  如何在网络世界中尊重他人  and how to respect the work of others in the online world  如何在网络世界中尊重他人的成果  Building on these three principles,  基于这三个原则  kids are set of ever changing social conventions  孩子们能了解使用数码技术时  around how people should act using digital technologies  应遵守怎样的社会准则  With these skills,  拥有这些技能  young people will be able to access the power of the online world safely and responsibly  年轻人将能够安全负责地获取网络世界的力量  These 9 skills are the essential skills  这九个技能是学生必学的基本技能  that all the students must learn if we hope to prepare them for the life in the future  如果我们希望他们为未来做好准备的话  This is a critical point  这很重要  Learning these skills is not optional  这些技能是必学的  if we hope to prepare students for the working world they will experience in their lifetimes.  如果我们希望学生具备应对未来世界的能力的话  Shifting teaching to these skills possesses teachers with a considerable challenge,  向这些技能转变给老师们带去一个巨大的挑战  I realize this  这点我也意识到了  But disruptive innovation is forcing educators to change the way we do things  但颠覆性创新让我们不得不改变以往的教育方式  You will recall at the beginning of this presentation  大家可能还记得演讲刚开始的时候  I said disruptive innovation ultimately is a human issue 我说颠覆性创新将最终影响全人类  It may start with technological development  它可能始于科技发展  but as the effect of ripple grows  但随着涟漪效应的发展  it change people’s lives  它将改变人们的生活  it force us to do old things in new ways  迫使我们用新的方式处理以前的事情  It pushes us out of our zone of comfort  把我们推出“安全区”  We ignore these ripples of change at our peril  我们不能冒险忽略这些变化  Their impact growth exponentially  它们的影响呈指数型增长  And those who do not prepare for the future will pay a heavy price  那些不为未来做准备的人将付出沉重的代价  We must understand  我们必须知道  that if the disruptive innovation can destruct the successful businesses,  如果颠覆性创新能够破坏成功的商业的话  like RadioShack in North America  像北美的 RadioShack5  which had a successful chain of stores selling electronics across the continent five years ago  年前成功经营着很多电子产品连锁店  And it’s no longer in business today  今天却已经倒闭  If disruptive innovation can destroy entire industries,  如果颠覆性创新能够破快整个产业  like auto manufacturing  如汽车制造业  and it can disrupt the entire economy out of the country  它也能破坏一个国家的整个经济  you can’t assume that it would not disrupt education  大家不能有这样的想法觉得它不会破坏教育  Disruptive innovation affects the kinds of skills needed to succeed in the modern world  颠覆性创新影响着在当今世界取得成功所需的技能  and that has a direct effect on what we do on our schools today  这对我们学校也有着直接的影响  The critical question you must ask yourselves is  大家必须问自己这个重要的问题  are you preparing your students for the world of the future  你是否在帮助学生为未来做准备  The success of any nation depends on the answer to this question 任何一个国家的成败都取决于这个问题的答案  to adequately prepare students for the future  为了让学生为未来做好充足的准备  you must recognize the global forces that are shaping the world  你必须意识到这些正在塑造全球的力量  and redefine the skills  并重新定义  that are needed to be productive in the new working environment  在新的工作环境中需要怎样的技能才能提高生产力  This will require a conscious effort  这需要付出努力  to shift instructions to teach students the 9 skills that I outline this morning  改变教育方式培养学生我刚刚强调的九种技能  The country that does this best will guaranteethat  随着时间的推移  continuous success as we move forward into the 21st  century  在这点上做得最好的国家将能持续取得成功  Those who don’t,  那些不做出改变的  run the risk of failing their children  他们的孩子可能会失败  There are so many other things  我想跟大家分享的还有很多  that I would love to talk to you this morning about effective teaching in the modern world  关于如何现代社会开展高效教学  But I will have to leave you with this  但我只能讲到这儿了  when students enter school,  当学生来到学校  it is our job to prepare them for the world they will enter when they graduate  我们有责任让他们为未来做好准备  But it’s even more important than that  更重要的是  our job is to equip students with mental skills that will last for a life time  我们有责任培养学生终身受用的脑力技能  And the key to effective instruction for the modern world  高效教育的关键  is to forget the past and fix our eye firmly on the future  就在于忘记过去着眼未来  because that’s where our students will spend most of their lives  因为学生的大半辈子将在未来度过  The importance of this was captured in a quote from John Kennedy  这一点的重要性正如肯尼迪总统所指出的,  He said 他说  change is the law of life  变化是生命不变的定律  those who only look to the past or the present are certain to miss the future  而那些只懂得留恋过去或现在的人肯定会错失未来  while it’s taking a long time to happen  这需要时间印证  the law of life, the law of change has caught up to education  但是生命的定律变化的定律已经渗入教育  That means we must embrace change as a normal part of our jobs  这就意味着我们必须把变化当做工作的新常态  And we cannot wait,  时不我待  the students need us to change right now  学生需要我们现在就做出改变  so that they will be ready for the world of the future  这样他们才能为未来做好准备  Thank you very much for listening.  谢谢大家   Ted McCain  1 颠覆性创新的涟漪效应  各位早上好  Good morning!  非常荣幸今天能够来到这里和大家做报告  It’s an honor to be here to speak to you today.  今天早上我想和大家讲的是未来  This morning I want to talk to you about the future.  未来对于我们的孩子意味着什么  What does the future hold for our children?  对那些今年入读幼儿园的孩子  For the children who enter our school for the first time in the kindergarten this year,  他们将在 2028 年上高中  who will access our high schools in 2028,  他们将生活在一个怎样的世界里  What kind of world will they live in?  他们在未来取得成功需要哪些技能?  What will they need for success in their future?  我来自加拿大温哥华  I’m from Vancouver in Canada,  加拿大的教师们  and I can tell you that Canadian educators are  今年夏天也跟我们今天早上一样  trying to do the very same thing we are doing this morning.  聚首一堂  They are meeting in this summer to try to  探讨未来对学生们来说意味着什么  determine what future holds for their students.  我们看看当今一些全球趋势  So let’s look at some of the global trends  这些趋势正在塑造我们学生的未来  that are shaping the future our students will experience.  在《破坏性教学》这本书里  In his book Disrupting Class  作者向我们介绍了“颠覆性创新”这一概念  Clayton Christensen introduces to us his concept known as “disrupting innovation”.  这是一个关键的推动力影响着全球教师  This is a key global force that is impacting teachers around the world.  颠覆性创新 Disruptive innovation  从根本上改变了传统的做事方式  has fundamentally altered the traditional long-standing ways of doing things.  颠覆性创新  Disruptive innovation  改变我们的工作方式娱乐方式沟通方式  transforms how we work, how we play, how we communicate,  看待同胞的方式和生活的方式  how we view our fellow citizens and how we live in the world.  这一颠覆性创新背后的推动力  The driving forces behind this disruptive innovation  是今天惊人的技术发展  is the incredible technological development occurring in the world today.  但是刚开始的技术创新  However, what would start the new technological innovation,  很快就得到发展  it quickly becomes much more than that,  因为创新改变了人们的行为方式  because innovation results in change in human behavior.  比如 iphone 手机的发展  For example, take the development of iphone.  刚开始它只是一个新的工具  It started out as just a new technological tool.  这是乔布斯 2007 年第一次向人们介绍 iphone 手机  He was Steve Jobs, the chairman of Apple, introducing the iphone in 2007.  如今 iphone 不仅仅是手机  Now the iphone was an amazing new idea for a cellphone.  除了手机的功能  But in addition to being a cellphone  它也有一些自带的功能  it also has a number of other built-in technologies,  以及全新的运行系统  and came with a new revolutionary operating system  让人们用手势就可以沟通  that allows you to communicate with others using natural hand gestures.  使用新设备又酷又有趣  It was cooland fun to use new device  但很快它就不仅仅是一个设备  but it soon became much more than that.  这一创新将颠覆世界的运行方式  This innovation would disrupt the way the world functions.  起初人们很难看到  At first, it was hard to see the connection  iphone 和生活方式之间的联系 between this device and how people live their lives,  但一旦人们开始使用它  but once people began using it,  他们便发现以前的事情可以用新的方式来做  they discover new ways of doing old things.  比如说人们每天都带着手机  For example, since people carry their phones with them all the time,  他们就会开始用手机听音乐  they start to listen to music on their phones,  这样人们就不再需要索尼随身听这样的便携式音乐播放器了  that makes them no longer need Sony walkman  这样人们就不再需要索尼随身听这样的便携式音乐播放器了  and diskman and similar portable music players.  这些设备的销售就直线下降  Sales of these devices dropped to zero.  之后苹果公司又推出 iTunes store 用户可以获得廉价的音乐  Then Apple introduced the itunes store and made songs available inexpensively.  随着越来越多的人购买在线音乐  As more people bought digital songs,  iphone 和 iTunes store 显著改变了整个音乐产业  the iphone and the itunes store significantly changed the entire music industry.  人们发现可以在用 iphone 玩游戏  People discover they can play games on their iphone.  于是便携式游戏机的销量也大幅下降  Consequently, the sales of portable game devices  因为人们的行为习惯发生了改变  like the Nintendo Gameboy dropped completely due to a shift of behavior.  正是因为人们随时随地都带着手机  Again, since people always have their phones with them,  他们也用手机拍照  they use their phones, iphones to take photos.  这也导致了数码相机销量的下降  This significantly cut the sales of digital camera.  人们开始在 iphone 上看视频  People shifted to watch videos on their iphones,  影像店就销声匿迹了  and video stores all disappeared.  人们不仅用手机看视频  People not only watch videos on their iphones,  他们还用手机拍视频  they shot videos on their iphones.  掀起了一股视频分享热潮  This led to a whole new era of video sharing.  银行业务也受到影响 The banking business was also hit by the shift of people′s behavior,  因为人们可以在手机上使用网上银行  as people moved to do online banking using their iphones.  iphone 很快就成为整个智能手机和触屏行业的佼佼者  The iphone soon swallowed the whole smart phone industry around touching phone  苹果公司紧接着又推出了 ipad  Apple then expanded the desire of iphone into the ipad,  开创了全新的平板电脑产业  and created a whole new tablet industry.  智能手机和平板电脑改变了人们获得新闻和信息的方式  Smart phones and digital tables shifted people’s ways of getting news and information.  报纸和杂志都受到影响  Newspapers and magazines felt the impact.  今天有报纸都有电子版满足在线阅读的需求  All newspapers today have their online edition to meet their demand of online reading,  多家报社已经完全停止发行纸质版  and many has stopped publishing paper edition altogether.  智能手机的发展带来了很多其他的变化  There are many changes that came from this one development,  但我想再提一点  but I want to mention one more,  因为这个变化很大  because it was so big,  没人能猜到 iphone 的创新  nobody could ever has guessed the innovation of the iphone  能带来如此巨大的变化  could cause changes so large  iphone 短短几年的发展  within a few years of the development of the iphone  严重损害了一个国家的经济  severely damaged the economy of the entire country.  2007 年 iphone 面世的时候  When the iphone was first released in 2007,  芬兰的诺基亚还是全球手机设计和销售的龙头  Nokia, based in Finland, was the world leader in cellphone design and sales.  但自那之后诺基亚逐渐衰退  Since then, Nokia has been steadily declined.  微软去年四月收购了诺基亚  Microsoft bought Nokia last April,  收购后立即解雇了 12,500 名员工  and immediately laid off more than 12,500 employees.  智能手机和平板电脑还影响了芬兰的另一个产业  Then the shift to smartphones and tablets impacted another Finnish industry.  在 iphone 和 ipad 面世之前 Prior to the iphone and ipad  报业是芬兰的一大国际产业  paper industry was one of Finland’s biggest international industries.  雇员众多  It employed tens of thousands of workers.  但是当人们开始用 iphone 和 ipad 获取信息  But when people shifted to get their news on iphones and ipads,  对报纸和杂志的需求便每况日下  the drop in demand for newspapers and magazines  芬兰的报业受到了严重的冲击  had a huge impact on the Finnish newspaper industry.  芬兰的林业工人纷纷失业  Thousands of Finnish forest workers lost their jobs.  iphone 的发展给了芬兰经济沉重的一击  The development of iphone hit the Finnish economy hard.  在短短 8 年中为什么能发生如此大的变革?  How could changes of such magnitude happen in just eight years?  原因就在于创新带来的涟漪效应  The reason is that there is a ripple effect of change that results from innovation.  就像你往池塘扔块石头涟漪会越来越大  Just like you throw a pebble into a pond, the ripples get bigger over time.  涟漪越大破坏力也就越强  As these ripples grow in size, so does the destruction that occurs in our lives.  颠覆性创新最终将影响全人类  Disruptive innovation ultimately is a human issue.  这一创新可能始于科技发展  It may start with technological development,  但是当影响的涟漪越来越大  but as the ripples of impact grow,  它将改变人们的生活  it changes people’s lives.  迫使我们用新的方式处理以前的事情  It forces us to do old things in new ways.  把我们推出“舒适区”  2 创新给教育带来的颠覆性涟漪和指数型增 长  It pushes us out of our zones of comfort.  现在我们看看创新给教育带来的颠覆性涟漪  I want to look at some of the disruptive ripples that innovation is causing in education. 在这之前  But before I do,  我想提醒大家一个重要的方面  I need to alert you to an important aspect of the kind of change  就是我们未来可能要应对的改变  that we can expect to deal with in the future,  也就是 iphone 带来的改变  the kind of change brought by the iphone.  要知道改变的本质已经发生了变化  You need to know the very nature of change has changed.  I was a leading author of the book Living on the Future Edge.  我是《生活在未来的边缘》的作者之一  In that book  在这本书里  we identify four exponential trends that are occurring in the world today.  我们指出当今世界正在发生的四项呈指数发展的趋势  You will encounter this word more and more as you move further into the 21st century  今后你会经常碰到这个词  The word is “exponential”.  “指数”  What does this word mean?  这个词的意思什么  More importantly  更重要的是  what does it mean that we will be experiencing exponential change?  我们将经历指数型变化意味着什么  How will this affect my life? How will this affect my job?  这对我的生活的工作将会有怎样的影响  As an educator  作为一名教育者  it is important that we get our heads around what exponential change is.  我们应了解什么是指数型变化  I am gonna use an example of the growth of a plant to illustrate this.  我想用一株植物的生长来解释一下  For example, let’s say you want to buy a plant to fill a bay window in your home.  比如说你想买株植物来装点家里的落地窗  So you go to the nursery and you get a plant  于是你就去买了一株植物  that will grow to full height in 30 days.  这株植物能在 30 天内长到最高  a height that will fill the entire window.  达到落地窗的高度  Now this plant has a linear growth pattern.  如果这株植物呈线性生长 What would this kind of growth look like?  它的生长轨迹会是怎样的呢  Here is the graph of the growth of this plant with the linear growth pattern  这幅图展示了这株植物在 30 天内长到最高的线性生长轨迹  that grows to the full height of window in 30 days.  这幅图展示了这株植物在 30 天内长到最高的线性生长轨迹  After 10 days, you will see one third of the plant.  10 天物长到三分之一  After 15 days, you see half of the plant.  15 天物长到一半儿  After 20 days, you see two thirds of the plant.  20 天物长到三分之二  The growth would be easily predictable.  预测它的生长轨迹非常简单  The changing height increases by a constant amount each day.  因为它每天长高的量是一样的  It’s important to note  一直以来  that all through history we have dealt with this kind of linear change.  我们都在应付这种线性变化  But what if the person in the garden instead gave you a plant  如果这株植物的生长轨迹是 30 天指数型成长  with an exponential 30-day growing pattern?  情况会是怎样的呢  Will it double in size daily?  它会每天增长一倍吗  What would be the outcome?  结果会是怎样的呢  Here’s the plant on Day One.  这是第一天的情况  It’s not very dramatic.  效果不是很明显  So let’s jump ahead to day 20. 、  我们直接跳到第 20 天吧  But before we do,  在这之前  if this was linear growth,  如果它还是线性增长的话  how much of the plant will be seen at day 20?  第 20 天的时候会长到多高呢  Two thirds.  三分之二  But here actually what we see at day 20 with exponential growth.  这里大家看到的是指数型增长第 20 天的情况 It’s not very impressive, is it?  情况不是很喜人对吗  Even though the plant is doubling in size daily,  即使它每天增长一倍  even though this is exponential growth,  即使这是指数型增长  we still see very little.  植物看上去并不是很出色  If you are doing the math,  大家算一下就知道  only one sixty-fourth of the plant is showing at this point.  这时植物只长了六十四分之一  So let’s jump ahead to day 25.  我们跳到第 25 天  This is what we see on day 25.  这是第 25 天的情况  This plant is just not growing the way it should.  它还是一点起色都没有  If this plant isgrowing with linear manner,  如果是线性增长  we should see five sixth of the plant by now,  我们现在应该看到六分之五的植物  but it is barely over the rim of the pot,  但现在它就只长了一点儿  and there are only 5 days left.  而且只剩 5 天了  This is day 26.  这是第 26 天  Something is wrong.  情况不对劲  What we have is the stunted growth  它压根就没长  and there are only 4 days to go.  只剩 4 天了  This is what we see on day 27.  这是第 27 天  They must have given me the wrong plant.  他们肯定给错我植物了  I mean, this plant is just never going to make it.  这株植物可能不会发育了  How could it possibly cover the entire window in just 3 days?  要在 3 天内长到窗户的高度简直是不可能的  [48:42]On day 28, this plant is just pathetic  第 28 天这株植物就是个悲剧 We’ve reachedday 28  到第 28 天  this plant only reach one quarter of the height of the window.  它就只长到窗户高度的四分之一  I think should take this plant back to the garden center, don′t you?  我觉得我应该把它退回给花园对吗  Well let’s see what happens.  我们看看接下来情况如何  On day 29  第 29 天  we finally notice something happened.  我们终于看到有所起色  But there is no time left  但没时间了  only half the window is covered.  它只长到窗户高度的一半  It’s incomprehensible that the plant can do the job.  它不可能在最后一天就长到窗户的高度  But here’s the critical question.  这里就有一个关键问题  If this plant doubles in size each day,  如果这株植物每天增长一倍  what’s going to happen tomorrow?  明天的情况会是怎样的  Bang! Theplant explodes in the view.  砰它爆长了  The entire window is covered,  已经长到窗户的高度了  and it seems that all happened in just one day.  而且好像是一天之内就实现了  This is the power of exponential doubling.  这就是指数型加倍的力量  By the time we notice something is happening,  当我们察觉到新情况时  the exponential growth pattern is about to really kick in.  正是指数型增长真正起作用的时候  And development explodes onto the scene with dramatic effect.  这时会出现突发性的爆炸性的变化  That’s why the Internet exploded into life.  这也是互联网迅猛发展的原因  They worked on networking for 40 years  互联网发展了 40 年  with very little impact on the general public,  但对公众的影响却非常小 then the exponential growth pattern really kicked in,  接着指数型增长发挥作用了  and the world was engulfed into the tide of information in a change  世界仿佛被卷入信息流中  that seemed to happen overnight,  而变化仿佛发生在一夜之间  That’s the power of exponential growth.  这就是指数型增长的力量  Once the doubling, tripling or quadrupling kicks in,  一旦指数的增长是两倍三倍甚至是四倍  look out,  这时就要留意了  because change occurs at breath-taking speed.  因为变化的速度是惊人的  This is what the graph looks like  从这个图表  that shows you the growth of the plant that doubles in size daily.  大家可以看到植物的指数型增长模式  Let’s go.  请看  Exponential growth looks like nothing is happening,  虽然指数型增长初看起来似乎没有什么变化  and then suddenly you get this explosion at the end.  但最后会突然爆发  This is a quote from Ray Kurzweil in his book the Singularity is near.  这句话来自 Ray Kurzweil 今年的书 Singularity is near  Exponential change is what I call swift change.  指数型增长就是我所说的“迅速变化”  It hits up on you.  它会突然爆发  By the time you notice something is happening,  当你察觉有新情况出现时  you are about to be overwhelmed with something new.  很快就会被新情况弄得手无足措  And the growth in change can be staggering.  变化的发展也可能是惊人的  In the same book  在他的书里  Kurzweil talks about the difference  Kurzweil 也谈到  between taking 30 linear steps and taking 30 exponential steps.  线性增长和指数型增长的区别  He’s now talking about  他说 the difference in the math between adding a constant to a total or doubling the total.  两者区别就在于往总数上加一个恒量还是使总数呈两倍增长  Here’s what he says.  这是他的原话  With 30 linear steps, you get to 30.  如果是线性增长增长 30 就是 30  With 30 exponential steps you get to one billion.  但是指数增长增长 30 就是十亿  If this is the math behind the change in the world today,  如果这就是当今世界变化背后的数学原理  then we have to look at things differently.  所以我们应该用不同的角度来看待事物  The only way to deal with this kind of change is look to the future.  应对这种变化的唯一方式是展望未来  You must be ahead of the curve,  你必须处于领先地位  you must lead, plan and act with the future in mind.  你必须站在未来领军者的角色  You must be able to detect new trends,  你必须能够察觉新趋势  project out their logical expansion,  预测符合逻辑的发展动态  and begin to act now to prepare  着手准备  and capitalize new opportunities that are coming.  把握新机会  So as we look at the changes that are affecting education,  我们看看影响教育的变化  and project these changes into the future,  并将这些变化和未来结合起来  it’s critical that we continue to ask ourselves,  关键的一点是我们要时常问自己  are we using linear thinking?  当我们展望未来时我们用的是线性思考方式  or exponential thinking when are projecting with the future goals.  还是指数型思考方式  And remember that the world doesn’t stop innovating on day 30,  要记住在第 30 天后创新永不间断  If the world is being driven by exponential change,  如果世界的发展受指数型变化驱动  what does the graph of the plant type look like on day 31, or day 32?  那在第 31 或 32 天植物的生长又会是怎样的呢  Once exponential change really kicks in,  一旦指数型变化开始发挥作用 the effect is almost unimaginable.  效果是几乎无法想象的    3 影响教育的发展动态趋势一:超信息 (hyper-information.)  Now there has been a multitude of innovation  现在许多创新带来的影响正在波及我们的生活  whose ripples of impact that are moving towards our lives.  现在许多创新带来的影响正在波及我们的生活  and we don’t have time to look at them all.  这里我们没有时间一一讲述  So let’s focus on some of the development  所以我们只看那些影响教育的发展动态  that are impacting what we are doing at schools.  所以我们只看那些影响教育的发展动态  I want to focus on two trends this morning.  我想集中讲讲两个趋势  The first trend I want to focus what I call hyper-information.  第一个趋势我称之为超信息  This trend affects teachers and students directly,  这一趋势直接影响师生  because so much of education involves information.  因为教育涉及大量信息  Before we talk about this trend,  在我们细讲这一趋势之前  I want you to stop and think for a moment.  我想停下来思考一下  What is the major skill that is developed by the vast majority of instruction  现在学校教育主要在培养学生的哪项技能呢  that occurs in your schools?  现在学校教育主要在培养学生的哪项技能呢  My observation has been that there is emphasis on memorizing course content,  在我看来我们一直在强调记忆课程内容  and memorizing procedures for doing things like mathematics,  还有记忆像做数学题一样的步骤程序  and often this memorization is done without students’ understanding  学生们虽然记住了  what the material means.  却不理解其中原理 This approach of instruction has been in place for hundreds of years.  几百年来我们都在采取这样的教育方式  The question is,  问题是  does memorization skill adequately prepare students for the world  学生在未来是否只需要记忆这一技能  that awaits them when they graduate?  学生在未来是否只需要记忆这一技能  Let’s look at the nature of information in the world today,  我们看看当今信息的本质  and see what that tells us about how we should be preparing our students.  看看我们应如何教育我们的学生  So how this disruptive innovation  颠覆性创新  impacted the nature of information in the modern world?  是如何影响当今信息的本质的  Well, first of all  首先  there is a lot more information than ever before.  现在的信息量比以往多得多  What’s the cause of the explosion of information?  引起信息爆炸的原因在哪  Consider this,  大家想想  over 90% of the scientists who have ever lived in all of human history are alive today,  人类历史上超过 90%的科学家都是现代科学家  and the amount of research and innovation  科研量和创新量  that have been done has expanded exponentially,  也都呈指数型增长  and as a result of all these people doing their work,  得益于这些人的辛勤工作  add to this the rapid explosion of the Internet into our lives  加上互联网的迅猛发展  all these new research and innovation  所有这些新的科研和创新成果  becomes instantly available to anyoneanywhere on the planet.  都突然变得触手可及  It’s important for people and company to know  对个人和公司来说了解信息非常重要  these new information in order for their workers to do their job  这样工人才能完成任务  and for companies to gain competitive advantage.  公司也可以获得竞争优势 But there is even more information on the Internet.  互联网上还有更多信息  The global network gives people access to news about,  全球网络让人们得以了解世界新闻  everything from natural disasters to politics to sports,  无论是自然灾害政治还是运动比赛  as well there are experts from around the world giving commentaries on all topics  专家们也会对这些话题做出评论  to help people interpret it and understand what’s happening in the world around them,  让人们更好理解身边发生的事  and to help workers understand how to apply new research and innovation to their jobs  也让工人们懂得如何将新的科研和创新成果运用到工作中  Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia,  维基百科是自由的百科全书  and it’s a good indicator of how big the explosion of up-to-date information really is.  它很好地说明了最新信息爆炸的规模  Wikipedia was created in 2001,  维基百科 2001 年创立  and since then,  自那以来  more than 5 million articles in 250 languages have been added to this website.  有 500 多万篇文章发表在这个网站上覆盖语言高达 250 种  Over 1 million new articles have been posted to Wikipedia in the last year alone.  仅在去年就有 100 多万篇文章发表在维基上  In March, 2015, there are over 20,000,000,000 page views in all Wikipedia tools.  2015 年 3 月维基各工具总浏览量达 200 亿  And remember, this is just one informational site.  注意这只是一个信息网站  There are so many more.  类似的网站还有很多  Baidu has indexed over 740 million web pages.  百度为 7.4 亿个网页编了索引  In fact, Google by itself has copied and indexed more than 1 trillion web pages.  事实上仅仅谷歌就复制和编入了 1 百万个网页  Most of the information on those pages are accessible in less than a second  网页上的大部分信息都是可以即时获得的  and searchable in 100 languages  并且可用 100 种语言进行检索  And to help people find information,  为帮助人们找到信息  powerful search engines like Baidu and Google and Yahoo and many others  像百度谷歌和雅虎这样的搜索引擎  are enabling people to search and find exactly what they are looking for.  都在帮助人们快速准确找到他们需要的信息 The amount of information that has been accessed in the world today  当今世界的信息量大小  is evident in the number of searches that has been processed every day.  可从每天的搜索数量看出  Did you know that Baidu has 5 million searches every day?  你是否知道百度每天有 500 万的搜索量  While that’s only in China, Google haggles 3 billion searches a day.  这只是中国的数据谷歌每天有 30 亿的搜索量  While Baidu and Google are doing that,  这也只是百度和谷歌的数据  at the same time, Yahoo has 1.2bilion searches a day.  雅虎每天也有 12 亿的搜索量  The amount of information in the world has quite literally exploded.  因此现在可以说现在是信息爆炸的时代  To give you the idea of how much information is available in the online world,  为了了解当今网上有多少可获得信息  a group at Boston IDC Institute added up all the zeros and ones  波士顿一个组织将所有数据  that make up all photos, videos, pdf files, emails,  如照片视频 PDF 邮件  web pages, instant messages and other digital data,  网页和即时信息等加起来  and determined that by august 2009,  他们得出到 2009 年 8 月份  there were 500 EB of digital data in the world.  信息量已经达到 500EB  Just how big is 500 EB of information?  500EB 的信息是多大呢  If you printed out these information in standard books,  如果将这些信息打印成册  and took those books, and piled them up,  然后把它们堆叠起来  the stack of books will extend into the space.  是可以堆到外太空的  My colleague calculated stack of books would extend all the way  我的同事算了下  from the earth to the solar system, to the not really a planet anymore, Pluto.  这一叠书可以从地球一直延伸到冥王星  But wait a minute, not just one stack,  而且不是只有一叠  He has calculated that 500 EB would be equivalent to 13 stacks of books  500EB 的信息量等于 13 叠  that extend all the way from the earth to the Pluto.  从地球延伸到冥王星的书 That’s ly an incredible amount of data.  这信息量是巨大的  This is ly overwhelming.  也是惊人的  And remember that this is based on the amount of data in 2009.  注意这只是 09 年的数据  How much information is there in the world today?  现在的数据量有多大呢  I’ll show you exponential growth in the picture  我将给大家展示一幅指数型增长图  and give you an idea of the staggering amount of data  这样大家可以想象  that will be available in the future.  在未来会有怎样的数据爆炸  But you need to know  但要知道  that hyper information is much more than just the amount of data available,  超信息要比那些可获得的信息多得多  it’s important that you understand  大家也要知道  that the quality information is now available as well.  高质的信息现在也可获得  We are in the midst of a migration of the world’s literary works to a digital format.  我们正处在从纸质版到电子版的过渡中  CADAL the Chinese-United States Million Book digital library project,  中美百万图书数字图书馆项目 CADAL  has already digitalized hundreds of thousands of Chinese books.  已经把成千上万本中文书数字化  with the growth of converting millions of books into digital formats within the few years,  在接下来几年也将把成百上千万本书扫成电子版  Superstar, a company based in Beijing,  北京的一家公司  has scanned every book from 200 libraries in China,  扫描了中国 200 多个图书馆的书  representing half the books published in the Chinese language since 1949.  这些书占了 1949 年后出版的中文书的一半  That’s Google.  这是谷歌  Google is doing much more than just indexing web pages.  谷歌不仅为网页编索引  In December, 2004, Google announced that it would digitize all the books in five prestigious  libraries,  2004 年 12 月谷歌宣布将把五个著名图书馆的书扫成电子版  all of the books in the library of Stanford University 包括斯坦福大学  all of the books at Harvard University  哈佛大学  all of the books at Oxford University  牛津大学  all of the books at the University of Michigan  密歇根大学  and the entire New York public library collection  和纽约公共图书馆  This is now largely done,  谷歌现在已经完成了大部分工作  and there are others,  还有其他一些例子  also in 2004, Raj Reddy, a professor at Carnegie-Melon University  2004 年,卡内基梅隆大学的 Raj Reddy 教授  began scanning books from his university’s library  开始扫描他们大学图书馆的书  called the million book project  叫百万图书项目  its goal was to scan a million books by the year 2008  旨在到 2008 年扫描一百万本书  He was a little late,  虽然起步比较晚  but it’s now done.  但项目现在已经完成  There is a rapid growth of digital libraries of digital books being created.  数字图书馆迅猛发展数字图书越来越多  Just think what is already available to people when they do searching,  大家可以想想现在人们搜索的时候可获得的信息量有多大  search almost any book,  大家可以找到任何一本书  by almost any author,  任何一位作者的书  and instantly get a summary,  而且可以立即获得书的摘要  and if you require further  如果你需要更多信息  you can get the full text,  你可以拿到完整版  There is an amazing number of books.  书的数量也是惊人的  The text can be downloaded and digitally passed to computer  你可以把书下载下来或传到电脑上  for reading, searching, sorting and inserting 阅读搜索分类和登载  Very soon checking a library book will become old fashion.  去图书馆找书很快就会过时  We are witnessing the creation of a mass digital library of great literary works,  我们正在见证大型数字图书馆的诞生  but there is even more.  不止这些  disruptive innovation is providing us with new tools of accessing to these information.  颠覆性创新也给我们提供了新的获取信息的工具  We already have the iphone and other smart phones.  我们已经有 iphone 和其他智能手机  Amazon has produced the Kindle book reader.  亚马逊也推出了 Kindle 读书器  People can now access information on their ipad or other digital tablets.  人们也可以在 ipad 或其他平板电脑上获取信息  There are new devices that can be mounted your glasses  现在也有新的设备可以安装到你的眼镜上  as well as a whole range of fantastic new digital devices that are in development.  还有其他一些正在开发的工具  And all these devices are capable of displaying multimedia nformation.  这些设备都可以展示多媒体信息  The shift that is taking place in the world today to an audio, video format information  当今世界信息的格式正在向音频和视频转变  is transforming the way we learn about the world.  这正在改变我们了解世界的方式  When I grew up  在我的成长过程中  people had to read about what was happening.  人们通过阅读了解世界  Often, days after occurred.  经常是数天前的新闻  It was a second-hand experience.  读报是二次信息汲取  Today people can learn about things as they happen.  今天我们能及时了解事件的发生  And they can experience the event in texts, images, videos and sound.  我们能在文字图像视频和声音中感知事件  They can see for themselves what is happening.  我们也可以自主了解  Take the tsunami that hit Japan in March, 2011.  拿 2011 年 3 月日本海啸来说  Videos like this are available online  像这样的视频在网上就能找到  brought the devastating impact of that event 通过观看视频世界各地的人们  into the homes of people around the globe.  都感受到了海啸带来的灾难性影响  People could experience the disaster first hand.  人们可以在第一时间亲身感受这一灾难  Not only that  不仅如此  we have seen historical images, video footage, historical audio  历史图像、镜头和音频  recordings being converted into digital format,  也被转成电子格式  all this means that people today can learn  这就意味着  both the current world and learn about history from first-hand experience  人们可以掌握当今世界和历史的第一手信息  They can see images of the long March, of the Red Army in 1934,  我们可以看到长征红军在 1934 年的照片  or watch Deng Xiaoping giving a speech on economic reform.  也可以看邓小平关于经济改革的演讲  Students today can see images of the rise of Nazism,  学生们可以看到纳粹主义的图片  the growth in size of the Third Reich  德意志第三帝国的规模  hear John Kennedy outline his plans to land a man on the moon,  听肯尼迪总统宣布人类登月计划  or watch the actual video footage  也可以看人类第一次登月时的录像资料  that was recorded when man first set foot on Moon surface.  也可以看人类第一次登月时的录像资料  Our students will soon have access to any single bit of information,  很快我们的学生都可以获得这些信息  any piece of text  包括世界任何文字  any photograph, any video, any painting, any TV or radio program  图像视频图画电视或电台节目  any web page, any blog post, any music produced by anyone around the world.  网页博客帖子和音乐  Very soon the entire works of mankind  很快人类所有有记载的历史和作品  from the beginning of recorded history in all languages will be accessible digitally  都会被转为电子格式  almost anywhere on the planet wirelessly within a fashion of second.  随时随地几秒钟就可获得  This would be a large digital library of multimedia information that can be explored with powerful searching tools.  这一巨大的多媒体信息电子图书馆可通过强大的搜索工具进行查找  And all this will be available to the average person.  每个普通人都可以随时随地获取信息  This access to everything, in every format, at anytime, anywhere on colorful, powerful, portable  devices  这种随时随地通过任何便携式设备获得各种格式的信息  is what I call hyper information.  就是我所说的超信息  And so we must ask some critical questions  我们必须要问几个关键问题  about how to prepare students for the world that awaits them when they leave us.  关于学生该怎样学习为未来做准备  For example,  比如说  what does it mean to be educated in the world of hyper information?  在超信息世界里怎样才是受过教育  What’s the current focus of teaching in your schools?  贵校现在的教学关注点是什么  Performing well in the tests has long been called as education,  在考试中取得优异成绩一直以来都是教育的焦点  but what skills does it produce in our students?  但这培养了学生的哪些技能  What I have seen from my work around the world is that  从我的经历看来  a focus on written tests enhances students’ ability to memorize.  关注笔试提高了学生的记忆能力  But does this traditional focus on memorization  但对记忆能力的强调  serve students well in the modern world?  是否对学生的未来有利  Of course, memorization will always have a place in education.  当然记忆在教育中总有一席之地  You can’t talk intelligently about something you don’t know.  对不知道的事情,你没办法进行讨论  But how does a focus on memorizing prepare students  但对记忆能力的关注  for a world with over 1 trillion web pages?  怎么帮助学生适应如此大的信息量呢  What’s the value of memorizing materials  最新的信息都触手可及  when up-to-date information is available with searching tools in a matter of seconds?  记忆材料的价值又在哪呢  And memorization skill is not all that is needed. 只具备记忆这一技能是不够的  What other skills do students need to be able to function in a world of hyper information?  在超信息世界里学生还需要哪些技能呢  This is an incredibly important issue that we have to think about deeply  这一问题值得我们深思  if we hope to fulfill our job to prepare students for the future that awaits them.  如果我们想帮助学生为未来做好准备的话  The changing nature of information in the modern world is a pressing issue for educators.  教育者们必须注意到当今世界信息的本质已经改变  It directly affects the skills that students will need for success when they leave us.  这直接影响到学生获得成功所需要的技能  And therefore, it directly affects the way we teach today.  因此也直接影响到我们今天的教学方式  We simply cannot ignore this trend.  我们不能简单忽略这一趋势  4 影响教育的发展动态趋势二:工作岗位的 变化  The second trend I want to look at this morning is the changing world of work.  今天早上我想讲的第二个趋势是工作岗位的变化  This is a trend that many educators overlook,  很多教育者都忽视了这一趋势  because our days are full enough with just running our classrooms in our schools.  因为我们每天都在学校  We rarely get the chance lift our head to look at what’s happening outside the school system,  很少会看到学校以外发生了什么  because we are so busy.  因为我们实在太忙  But the world today is very different one from the world that most of us grew up in.  但是今天的世界和我们长大的世界是很不一样的  For example,  比如说  the world I grew up in was a very stable world.  我长大的世界是很稳定的  When I grew up, there was an incredible rhythm to life.  在我的成长过程中生活有稳定的节奏  My father drove his car on the driveway to work every morning at 8:15.  我父亲每天早上 8 点 15 分开车去工作  He pulled his car back on the driveway every night at 6:30.  每天晚上 6 点半开车回家 You could set your watch by it.  你都可以设好时钟  And my father worked for the same company for over 40 years,  我父亲在同家公司工作了 40 多年  pretty much doing the same thing year after year.  每年的工作都基本一样  But today,  但今天  disruptive innovation has so greatly altered the world  颠覆性创新极大改变了世界  that it would be unrecognizable to my father.  我父亲可能都认不出这个世界了  It is a completely different world.  这是一个完全不同的世界  A world where stability that has been replaced by constant change.  以前的稳定已经被不断的变化取代  Let’s look at what happened.  我们看看发生了什么  For the longest time, riding to the ladder half of the 20th century  长期以来直到 20 世纪中期  a major driver for the economy in the developed world was the factory job  推动发达国家经济发展的主要驱动力是工厂的工作  and the factory mindset for workers.  以及工厂思维  But this type of job has been disappearing in the globe for decades.  但这种工作正在全球范围内销声匿迹  Why?  为什么  Because technological innovation has made it possible  因为科技创新使得这种工作可以这样完成  for this kind of work to be done by anybody anywhere in the world.  即由任何人在任何地方完成  And while labor is cheaper not in the developed world,  发达国家的劳动力不便宜  but in place like here in China.  在中国也如此  and today, even cheaper places like Vietnam, India, Bangladesh,  甚至在劳动力比较廉价工资低下的第三世界国家也是如此  Pakistan, Mexico and other low-wage third world countries.  如越南印度孟加拉巴基斯坦墨西哥  There has been one exception by the way to this mass accident of jobs,  顺便提下工作岗位的变化有一个例外  work that is tied to its place,  受工作地点限制的工作 Work that we say is location dependent.  也就是我们所说的依赖工作地点的工作  This includes work in the construction industry, carpenters,  包括建筑工人木匠  plumbers, electricians, metal fabricators,  水管工人电工金属制造工人  also truck drivers and miners, oil rig workers, barbers, cooks,  卡车司机矿工石油钻探工人理发师厨师  delivery service workers, auto technicians, restaurant workers,and cleaning staff,  速递工人汽车修理工人餐厅工作人员和清洁工  just to name a few.  这只是一小部分  All these blue-collar jobs require workers to be on site to do their work.  这些蓝领工作都要求工人到现场工作  Some of these jobs have been affected by the recent ups-and-down of the economy,  其中一些工作受到最近经济波动的影响  there continues to be a strong demand  但在发达国家  for location dependent blue-collar workers in the developed world.  对这些受工作地点限制的蓝领工作需求还是很大的  The same strong demand, however, is not the case for white-collar jobs.  对白领工作的需求就没有这么大了  White-collar office and management jobs are quickly disappearing from the economy.  白领办公室和管理工作将很快从经济中消失  In fact, it is estimated that90% of current white-collar jobs in North America will likely  事实上据估计现在北美 90%的白领工作  disappear in the next 10 to 15 years.  可能在未来 10 到 15 年销声匿迹  Innovation of powerful software toolsthat will replace white-collar workers  即将取代白领工作的先进软件工具  is already disrupting traditional ways of doing business.  已经在颠覆传统的经营模式  Digital tools are making possible for fewer workers to do much more work.  数字工具使少数工人完成更多任务成为可能  But there is another reason that these white-collar jobs are disappearing.  白领工作消失也有另外一个原因  Even if the workers are not replaced by software tools,  即使白领工人不被软件工具取代  they are still at risk of having their work outsourced to workers in the third world countries.  他们的工作也有可能被外包给第三世界国家  The reason that these jobs can be outsourced  这些工作之所以被外包  is that many tasks done by white-collar workers is what we call routine cognitive work.  是因为白领从事的都是常规认知工作 Routine cognitive work is anything that involves repetitive mental tasks.  常规认知工作指的是任何涉及重复性脑力活动的工作  Routine cognitive work includes people doing bookkeeping and taxes,  常规认知工作包括图书管理员税收工作人员  Call center workers, receptionists, help-desk for customer support workers;  呼叫服务员工接待员帮助平台员工  but it also includes computer programmers, legal researchers, some engineering work,  也包括编程员法律调查员和一些工程类工作  even people who interpret MRI and X-rays do routine cognitive work.  甚至那些分析核磁共振和 X 光片的工人也包括在内  Did you know that if you had a MRI scan done recently,  如果你最近做过核磁共振你是否知道  there is more than 70% chance  你的分析有 70%的可能性  that the analysis of that MRI is outsourced to workers in Pakistan?  是外包给巴基斯坦人做的  All of this kind of routine cognitive work workers  所有从事这类常规认知工作的工人  do the same mental tasks over and over again.  都在不断重复同样的脑力任务  This work not only can, but will be outsourced as we move further in the 21st  century,  随着时间的推移这些工作不仅可能也会被外包  because we live in a hyper-connected, hyper disruptive world.  因为我们整个世界已经非常紧密的联系在一起  Routine cognitive workers must not only compete with people  常规认知工人不仅要和其他城市  in the next city, the next region, or next state,  其他省或地区的工人竞争  they must also compete with an extensive global labor pool of inexpensive workers.  他们还得和全球的廉价劳动力竞争  For example, Odesk.  比如说 Odesk 网站  The Odesk website allows employers to assemble virtual globalwork team  这个网站让雇主可以基于项目在网上组建  on a project-by-project basis.  来自世界各地的员工队伍  At the Odesk website, there is literally millions of private contracts  这个网站有数百万计的私人合同  around the world offering services in every imaginable white-collar work category.  覆盖白领工作的各项内容  For example, our consulting company, Info7021,  比如说,我们的咨询公司  recently put out a request for web designers at Odesk.  最近在 Odesk 上发布了一则网页设计师招聘启事 Within 20 minutes, we have 230 applicants from all over the world.  不到 20 分钟我们就收到来自全世界 230 份申请  We ended up hiring the guy named Jimmy White.  最后我们决定聘请这个叫 Jimmy 的小伙子  Here is Jimmy working on a project.  这是他在工作的照片  Jimmy is from Shanghai, China.  他来自中国上海  But what you need to know  你要知道  is that he could easily have been from Venezuela, Nigeria, or Kuwait  我们也可以轻易找到来自委内瑞拉尼日利亚或科威特的员工  So the new workplace reality is that the white collar work can be outsourced.  所以现实情况就是白领工作可以被外包  Beyond this,  除此之外  it’s important to see that due to disrupting innovation,  也应看到由于颠覆性创新  the nature of white-collar work is very different today as well.  白领工作的本质也跟以前不一样  Today’s economy is increasingly built on a global people cloud.  今天的经济越来越多依赖全球合作  That cloud is completely based on the Internet,  这样的全球合作也依赖于网络  and it is rapidly transforming the very nature of work.  而且在迅速改变工作的本质  It’s amazing.  这些都令人咋舌。  We are quickly moving from companies with hundreds, thousands of permanent workers  公司正迅速从拥有几百几千名永久员工  to companies that engage temporary employees  向拥有短期员工转变  like we did with Jimmy White.  就像我们聘请 Jimmy 一样  Companies and individuals are coming together in a temporary networks  公司和个人通过临时网络共同合作  to sell goods and services.  销售产品和服务  Then, when the job finished, the network dissolves,  任务完成的时候这一网络也就解除  and the members of the network become independent again.  各成员回归相互独立状态  They then recirculate through the economy looking for the next assignment.  重新寻找下一个任务 As a result of this shift,  由于这样的转变  increasingly the fundamental unit of the new economy is no longer the corporation.  新经济的基本单位不再是公司  It’s the individual worker.  而是工人个体  According to this report published in April, 2015 by Oxford University entitled A Smart Move  牛津大学 2015 年 4 月的这份报告指出  in Great Britain, Australia and the United States,  在英国澳大利亚和美国  the point at which the labor market has more freelancers than full-time employees  自由雇员的数量将超过全职员工  is between 5 to 10 years away.  这是劳工市场在未来 5 到 10 年内趋势  let me say that again.  我想重复一下  the point at which our labor market has more freelancers,independent contractors,  自由雇员的或个体员工的数量将超过全职员工  individual workersthan full-time employees is between 5 to 10 years away  这是劳工市场在未来 5 到 10 年内的趋势  Even the location of work place has changed.  连工作场所也发生了改变  Instead of workers coming to the work,  工人们不再去固定的地点工作  increasingly the work now comes to the workers  无论身处何时何地  whenever and wherever they are in the world,  他们都能接受工作任务  just like our work came to Jimmy here in China.  就像 Jimmy 在中国为我们工作一样  Disruptive new online technology is making organizing,  颠覆性网络技术让全球范围内的组织  managing and collaborating with a global team a simple task.  管理和合作变得轻而易举  But here is another trend we need to consider when we look at the global work.  在看全球工作的时候我们也必须注意到另外一个趋势  Work has not only been outsourced and offshored,  工作不仅被外包离岸  it has also been automated.  而且越来越自动化  For example,  比如  every time you use Expedia, or any other travel website to make a hotel reservation  你每次使用 Expedia 或其他旅游网站预订酒店 or to book an airline ticket,  或者预定机票的时候  or anytime you drop your mortgage number into a web form,  或你每次在网上的表格填写按揭号的时候  you have unintentionally taken away some jobs of some frontline routine cognitive workers.  你就已经在无意中夺走了一些重复性强的工作  Think about legal software or income tax preparation,  想想法律软件或个人所得税计算  many people are doing this themselves with the help of online software tools.  现在很多人借助网上的软件工具就能够独立完成  Today, if a job or task can be reduced to a mathematical algorithm,  今天如果一份工作或任务能被算法取代  it’s easy to produce robots, micro-chips or software  生产机器人微型芯片或软件是很简单的  that will do the job cheaper and faster.  而且它们能又快又廉价地完成工作  And when that happens  当它们被大量生产时  that segment of the job or the entire job itself vanishes forever.  这些工作岗位就会永远消失  Traditional factory floors were designed for mass production,  传统的厂房是根据大量生产设计的  as you can see in the picture,  就像这张图片一样  there were people sitting or standing in rows  人们坐或站成一排  all doing the same thing at the same time  在一样的时间里做一样的事情  not really connected to one another.  他们之间毫无联系  But no more,  这样的情况将不复存在  in the developed world,  在发达国家  gone forever are the days when 20% of the workers told 80% of the workers what to do.  20%的员工指使其他 80%的员工的日子已经一去不复返了  In this new economy in the developed world,  在发达国家的新经济中  80% of people are primarily managing their own work,  80%的人都掌控着自己的工作  and they are expected to be constantly  他们需要不断学习  learning about new process, concept and applications.  学习新的流程概念和应用 And increasingly, they are expected to work in temporary group of coworkers,  越来越多与临时伙伴共事  who collaborate on tasks that more often than not require intellectual,  并且更多的是从事需要智力  not physical capabilities  而非体力的工作  More and more workers today need mental skills  现在越来越多的工人需要脑力技能  in order to harness the power of technology to increase their productivity.  以运用科技的力量来提高生产力  Checkout this video of robots that replace the entire production line of workers.  看下这个视频机器人完全取代了整个生产线的工人  This is the picture of the same production line with one difference,  这是同个生产线的照片但有稍有不同  it shows you the human work force,  就是里面有人类  are you ready for it?  你们准备好了吗  One worker surrounded by dozens of robots  一个工人被十几个机器人包围  that have replaced the entire production force of workers.  这些机器人取代了整个生产队伍  This move to robotics has not only freed a lot of employees from manual labor,  向机器人的转变不仅让很多雇员免于手工劳动  it has also permanently removed a lot of jobs for people from their work place.  也永久地取代了一些人的工作  These jobs have been replaced by disruptive technologies  这些工作被颠覆性技术取代  that do the job faster and cheaper.  它们能以更快的速度更低的成本完成工作  The people who are left using different set of skills to utilize the power of new innovation.  幸存的人们只能使用不同的技能来运用创新的力量  Disruptive innovation has created a one half by two, by threeeconomy.  颠覆性创新带来了二分之一除 2 除 3 经济  There are half as many workers,  劳工人数减少了一半  this number reflects the mass exodus of jobs that have been lost in the downside,  这一数字就反映了下游的大量失业  the workers are getting paid twice as much money  但工资翻倍  which represents the increased concentration of highly skilled knowledge workers  这说明了高新科技人才  who command higher salaries.  将会成为高薪人群 These workers produce three times much of value  他们所创造出来的产出是传统产出的三倍以上  because they use new technology like software and robotics to be significantly more productive  因为他们借助技术如软件和机器人生产力显著提升  than those who cannot use the power of new technology.  超过那些无法借助新兴技术的人  And there is something happening in technology that we are seeing every day.  科技日新月异  Something that is new.  每天都有新技术出现  It’s getting smarter.  并且越来越智能  Take cars for example.  拿车来说  Modern cars are filled with smart systems.  现代汽车充满智能系统  Every time we step on the brake in a late modern car,  每一次踩刹车  a smart computer monitors what is happening in each of your tires,  车的智能电脑都会监控四个轮子的动向  and balances up the braking action between all four wheels from maximum braking effect.  做出相应的踩刹车调整  And now we have new cars being equipped with intelligent artificial parking system,  现在车还有自动停泊的系统  that will allow you to take your hands off the wheel,  无需人力停泊  and the intelligent system in the car  车里的智能系统  takes over to parallel park the car parallel with another car without the help of the driver  会自动将车停好  This smart technology is getting smarter every day.  这一技术也越来越智能  We can buy robots that can clean our floors.  我们也可以买扫地机器人  This is the braava robot developed by Irobot.  这是 Irobot 开发的一款机器人  You turn it on,  打开它  and it will intelligently clean your floor  它就会自动扫地  without bumping into your furniture or anything else that has been left on the floor.  而且不会碰到任何家具或地上的任何东西  Now remember, these devices work independently,  这些设备都是自主工作 no one is controlling it.  没人控制它们  It is making cleaning decisions on its own.  它们自己做出决定  Here is the video of the self-driving car developed by Google.  这是谷歌自动化驾驶系统的一个视频  What you need to know  大家要知道  is that this man who is about to sit in the driver’s seat is partially blind  司机是个盲人  and can no longer drive a car.  已经无法进行驾驶  What you need to know is that  大家需要知道的是  no one controls the car driving in to that drive-through restaurant.  车在驾驶当中是没有任何人进行控制的  The decisions to drive the car in were made by the car.  驾驶决策都是由车自己做出的  These robotic cars are amazingly capable.  这样一个非常棒的系统  They have driven over 1 million miles in downtown San Francisco  这些车在旧金山市区行驶公里数已经超过 1 百万英里  without any human interventions.  整个过程均无需人力介入  Here is the completely functional, artificial intelligent robot called BigDog  这是一个智能机器人叫 BigDog  made by Boston Dynamics.  由波士顿动力公司开发  This robots carries heavy equipment for soldiers.  这个机器人为士兵运输重型设备  And it is not controlled by operators.  而无需操作员控制  It has an autonomous thinking machine.  它能进行自主的思考  As you can see, it is incredibly capable of extraordinary balance  正如大家所看到的它还有非凡的平衡能力  This intelligent robot makes navigation decisions on its own,  这个智能机器人自主决定前进的方向  in order to follow soldiers in the field.  以随时跟进执行任务的士兵  This is the fully functional robot developed in Australia.  这是澳大利亚开发的一款全能机器人  They can build a brick house in two days.  它们能在两天内搭建起一栋房子 It can be programmed to leaving opening for doors, windows and garages.  并且可以通过编程让它们为门窗和车库留下敞开的空间  It works 24 hours a day, 365 days a year,  这个机器人能一年 365 天每天 24 小时工作  and will create brick walls  它们用砖砌起来的墙  that are straighter and even more even than any human hand can produce.  比人工砌的更直更平行  Then the Siri,  这是 Siri  this is the digital assistant software in iphones and ipads,  iphone 和 ipad 里面的语音助手  This is an intelligent piece of software that understands natural languages  这一款智能软件能理解任何自然语言  and gives intelligent responses  给出智能的回答  to assist people in accessing the content on their phones and on the Internet.  以帮助人们获得手机里或网上的信息  Right now, Siri is not perfect.  现在这个软件还不完善  For any of you that has used it, you know that,  如果你用过的话你就知道  but that’s not the point.  但重点不是这个  The point is that a reasonably functional artificial intelligent personal system already exists  重点是这样一个运行良好的私人智能系统确实存在  and one that responds to verbal request  而且能对口头要求作出回应  And this intelligent assistance is inexpensive enough  而且这款软件也不贵  to be affordable to the average person.  普通人也支付得起  Now I’ll throw exponential change into picture,  现在我想给大家看一下指数增长  and you’ll get a sense of something big that is going on here.  你可以从中感受到有重大情况正在发生  If we project exponentially where this smart robotic technology is heading,  如果我们能用指数型的方式来思考智能机器人技术所引领的未来  it reveals a startling different world.  我们可以看到一个完全不同的世界  We are just opening the door onto a world with full of robotic machines with capabilities  机器人普及刚刚起步  that most of us thought was just inside fiction movies.  它们拥有我们认为只存在于科幻电影中的技能 It is now easy to project  显而易见的是  that we are on the verge of seeing a whole new generation of robots with something  全新一代的机器人将出现  that we have never seen before.  并且拥有我们从未见过的技能  These robots will be able to think.  这些机器人能够思考  These new smart machines  这些智能机械  will quickly become an incredible useful tool for everyday people.  能迅速成为普通人非常有用的工具  Exponential development of their power  随着指数型增长  means that these devices will be very soon  就意味着这些设备将很快  not only able to recognize words,  不仅能够识别语言  they will be able to anticipate your needs and wants  且能预测您的需求  and they will be able to problem-solve issues that you encounter every day.  也能解决你每天遇到的问题  What you need to know is these autonomous robotic devices already exist today.  你要知道的是这些自主机器人今天已经存在  These are videos and images of ASIMO,  这是 ASIMO 的视频和图像  the artificially intelligent robot developed by Honda.  这个人工智能机器人是本田开发的  This device exists and provides us a glimpse of what’s coming very soon  这样的设备确实存在,通过它我们也能一瞥即将发生的事情  Of course, these new personal robots will be able to do heavy and dangerous work for us.  当然这些新的私人机器人能为我们干重活或危险的任务  But they are also interact with us,  但它们也和我们互动  they will become an integral part of our lives.  它们将成为我们生活中不可或缺的一部分  They will play with our children.  它们将和我们的孩子玩儿  They will serve us and do many of the tasks.  它们能为我们执行很多任务  Remember, this device which exists today,  记住这一今天就存在的设备  is completely not controlled by anything else.  是完全自主的 It is making decisions on its own.  能自主进行决策的  These devices will be able to intelligently help us manage our lives.  这些设备能够智能地帮助我们管理生活  This is Jibo, the world first family robot developed by MIT.  这是 Jibo 麻省理工开发的世界第一款家庭机器人  You can talk to this device and it will respond to you with facial recognition software.  你能和这个机器人说话它也会通过面部识别软件回应你  This device knows who you are and the way you want things.  这个机器人知道你是谁以及你的需求  Intelligent robotic devices like this  诸如此类的智能机器人  will be wirelessly connected to the information on the Internet.  能无线连接到网络  That means you will be able to ask it when you want to get a recipe for muffin  这就意味着当你在厨房做小松饼的时候  when you are working in the kitchen  你可以问它要菜谱  or ask it to tell you when the breaking news occurs,  或让它一旦有爆炸新闻就跟你报告  or when your investment goes up and down,  或当你的投资时起时落时跟你报告  or when the production lines is having problem,  或当生产线出现故障时跟你报告  or when the students hand in an assignment.  或当学生提交作业时跟你报告  If you are busy,  如果你在忙  you can have a screen phone call,  你能打视频电话  they can even talk to people for you.  这些机器人甚至能成为你的代言人  These devices will be able to display information directly on the head of the robot  这些设备将能直接在机器人头部展示信息  or beam information wirelessly to your computer or wide screen TV  或将信息无线发送到你的电脑或电视屏幕  or beam it to the display built in your multimedia glasses.  或发到你的多媒体眼镜  This means you will be able to interact with the digital personality  这就意味着你将能够跟数码人格进行互动  as it moves from device to device,  在不同的使用设备间转换  so now you can interact with the personality that is in the physical robot.  你能和有人格的机器人进行互动 or you can interact with the digital personality virtually  数码人格也可以是我们在电脑屏幕上所看到的一种虚拟的人格  on a form of online digital character that appears on your computer screen  数码人格也可以是我们在电脑屏幕上所看到的一种虚拟的人格  or have the software transfered wirelessly to the computer of your car  你也可以把软件无线传输到车里的电脑上  so your digital assistant sysem will always be with you.  因此你的数字助手会一直陪伴着你  And when we apply exponential thinking  当我们用指数型的方式思考这种人工智能设备所引领的未来  as we project where this kind of artificial intelligent device is heading,  当我们用指数型的方式思考这种人工智能设备所引领的未来  it is clear that learning  可以清楚看到  to live with these thinking devices will confront us much sooner than most people believe.  学会跟这些会思考的设备共同生活是我们很快就要面对的课题  Personal intelligent robotic assistance system  私人智能机器人  will soon become an indispensable part of our lives.  将很快成为我们生活中不可或缺的一部分  James Camp in his book The Extreme Future  在《极端未来》这本书中  devotes an entire section of the book to discussing  作者用了很大的篇幅讨论  the emergence of this kind of robots capable of independent thinking.  这种会独立思考的机器人的出现  Camp says, with decrease cost of computer chips  他说随着电脑芯片成本下降  and fast exponential increases in processing power,  处理能力大幅提高  all products in the future will have the capacity to think,  未来所有产品将有思考的能力  products will be connected and sense, talk, interact  它们将会相互关联、能够进行感知  and make decisions with humans and for humans.  并能跟人类交流互动和共同决策  We are going to have to get used to  未来我们要习惯  dealing with these powerful thinking machines in our lives.  应对生活中这些强大的会思考的机器  Now you might be thinking that I am completely crazy.  现在你可能觉得这是天方夜谭  But you need to know that there are many of these devices that are already here.  但是要知道很多诸如此类的设备今天也已经存在 And yes these devices today are very expensive,  这些设备是很贵  but that will change dramatically over the next few years.  但是未来几年价格一定会大幅下降  I project that an autonomous thinking robot will be available to consumers  我预计在这种会自主思考的机器人将会成为家用机器人  to use at their homes within 8 to 10 years.  在未来 8 到 10 年内  Further, I predict that these devices will attain sufficient intelligence  并且这些设备将拥有足够的智力  to significantly impact the world of work within 10 to 12 years.  来极大影响未来 10 到 12 年的工作岗位变化  As a society, and especially as educators,  作为教育者  we need to suit up on what this will mean for the work place.  我们要了解这对工作岗位来说意味着什么  For example, in a matter of a few years,  比如说未来几年  massive powerful intelligent robots, combined with 3D printing technology  巨大的智能机器人加上 3D 打印技术  will be capable of building customizable houses complete with water and plumbing and eating.  将有能力建造个性定制的房子  Robots will drive trucks.  机器人将驾驶卡车  They will cook meals.  它们将为我们烹饪  They will make beds.  为我们整理床铺  They will clean floors.  以及打扫  And here is the really importantpoint.  大家注意这个重要的点  This technology will target those location dependent jobs that are currently seen to be safe.  这一技术也将影响那些现在看起来很安全的受工作地点限制的工作  You may not be comfortable with this trend.  你可能不想接受这个趋势  but you need to know that this is only the beginning.  但你要知道现在只是开端  According to the Oxford university report that I cited earlier,  根据我刚刚提到的牛津大学的报告  the growing automation of knowledge work meansthat  自动化的发展意味着到 2030 年  2 billion jobs globally will be lost to software and robotics by the year 2030.  全球 20 亿工作将会由软件和机器人取代 Now that’s too important to miss.  这一点值得我们关注  Let me repeat that.  我想再重复一遍  the growing automation of knowledge work means that  自动化的发展意味着到 2030 年  2 billion jobs globally, 2 billion jobs globally  全球 20 亿工作  will be lost to software and robotics by the year 2030.  将会由软件和机器人取代  That’s just 15 years from now.  而那距离现在只有 15 年的时间  Isn’t that just about the time  那时不刚好就是  when the kids entering kindergarten this year are about to graduating?  今年进入幼儿园的孩子即将步入社会的时候么  Now some of the loss of those jobs will be soften by new jobs that are created,  现在新的就业岗位可以缓解一些岗位的消失  but they are going to be low-paid temporary variety  但都是些低薪的临时岗  The report goes on the say that 44%,  报告也指出现在澳大利亚 44%的工作  5.1 million jobs in Australia are currently at risk of  即 510 万份工作在未来 20 年  being affected by computerization and robotic technology over the next 20 years.  将受到电脑和机器人技术的冲击  Just stop for a moment and consider  停下来想想  what this could do the kind of jobs that will be available for the future.  这样的变革会如何影响未来的工作种类  A significant number of jobs will disappear.  许多工作岗位将不复存在  And those left would likely require a different set of skills that were not needed in the past.  而幸存的岗位可能需要人们掌握一套完全不同的技能  What will those skills be?  那些技能会是什么呢  There will a great need for people  未来社会将极大需要这样的人  who have a higher level of thinking and human creativity skills.  即那些拥有高水平的思考和创新技能的人  We are already seeing this in the world today.  这一点我们现在就已经可以看到  What about those people without high level of thinking skills?  那些没有高水平思考能力的人会怎样呢 The new global economy already provides fewer and fewer jobs for the poorly educated.  新经济中教育水平较低的人将有越来越少的工作机会  5 创新阶层工作的迅猛发展是经济中的新趋 势    And as we look to the future,  当我们展望未来  we can see thatincreasing choice for workers  我们可以看到  is that either they will have high level skills or they will get low-paid jobs.  没有高水平的技能就没法找到高薪的工作  More importantly,  更重要的是  if you project a little further in the future,  如果你再想远一点儿  you can see that many of those low-wage jobs will disappear completely.  可以看到很多低薪工作将完全消失  This should be a wakeup call for us,  这给我们敲响了警钟  those of us in education,  对我们教育者而言  what is the future for students only equipped the ability to memorize?  如果学生只有记忆技能他们的未来会是怎样的?  What will be the future for students who have only been equipped with technical skills  如果学生拥有的技能都能被智能机器取代  that can be done by a smart machine?  他们的未来又会是怎样的  Let’s explore this for a bit further.  我们再进一步看下这个问题  This is Richard Florida,  这是 Richard Florida  he is the author of the book called The Rise of the Creative Class  他写了《创造阶层》这本书  In his book Florida examines workplace change in the United States.  在书中作者考察了美国的岗位变化  His observation is interesting even here in China,  他的考察结果也适用于中国  because China is rapidly catching up to other developed countries.  因为中国正在飞速赶上其他发达国家 And it is critically important that  有一点至关重要  you recognize that these are global trends,  大家要认识到这些都是全球趋势  and that no country is immune to these global forces.  没有国家能免受影响  The trends are identified widely across the world.  很多国家也已经意识到这些趋势  He says we can divide the work force into four basic groups.  Florida 说我们可以把工作人群分为四个阶层  The first group in green is the agricultural class.  第一个阶层是农业阶层  In the year 1900, more than 40% of the US workers were involved in agriculture.  1900 年美国 40%的劳工都从事农业工作  Since then, there has been a steady decline in agriculture workers.  自那之后农业人口在不断下降  By the year 2010, automation has reduced that number to about 1% of the work force.  到 2010 年自动化已经将农业人口减少到劳动力的 1%  Farms and their work animals have been replaced by machines.  机器已经取代了农民和牲畜  The second group in red is the working class.  第二个阶层是工作阶层  There are the classic manufacturing labor, mining jobs,  经典的例子如制造工人或矿工  the blue-collar jobs that we talk about.  也就是所谓的蓝领阶层  The jobs only require basic skills to perform.  这些工作只要求非常基础的技能  These jobs peaked just after WWII.  像这样的工作在二战之后达到了顶峰  The problem with only basic skills is that the economy has shifted  但问题就在于经济已经转型  and there is less demand today for workers with only basic skills.  对只具备基本技能的工人的需求越来越小  Thousands of factories have closed in the United States in the last 20 years,  过去 20 年中美国很多工厂关门  throwing millions of people out of work.  数百万人因此失业  And this job loss is a global trend.  失业也是一种全球趋势  IN the past 24 months, thousands of factories have been closed in China,  在过去 24 个月中国很多工厂也关门  Throwing more than 20 million workers out of work.  超过 2000 万人因此失业 The third group is in orange.  第三阶层是橙色这块儿  And these are location dependent workers.  这些是受工作地点限制的工作人群  These are the service workers, construction workers, truck drivers, the service industry,  比如服务人群建筑工人卡车司机  helping professionals, people who do routine cognitive work.  辅助人员等从事“常规认知工作”的人员  As you can see, this type of job peaked in 1980,  大家可以看到这种工作 1980 年达到峰值  and are now steadily shrinking.  现在便平稳下降  The fourth group in purple, is what Richard Florida call the creative people.  第四个阶层就是 Richard Florida 说的创新阶层  These are people who regularly do non-routine cognitive work,  这个阶层一般不从事常规认知工作  and consistently apply 21 century higher level creative thinking skills in their work.  他们不断把 21 世纪的高水平创新和思考技能运用到工作中  There were not many of these workers in the year 1900.  在 1900 年的时候这样的工人并不多  But the economy has shifted.  但经济已经转型  By 2010, this is the fastest growing segment of the work force.  到 2010 年这是劳工队伍中增长速度最快的  Since this graph illustrates what are now the global trends,  这个图表阐明了未来的全球趋势  this is what you can expect in the work force here in China in the very near future.  这也是中国工作人口今后的走向  Now I want to look at what happen in the service and creative classes,  我还想看看在服务行业以及创新方面产生的趋势  particularly what has happened since 1980.  我还想看看在服务行业以及创新方面产生的趋势  Since then, these lines are going in opposite directions,  自那时起两条线是往相反方向走的  they are inverse trends.  它们是相反的趋势  that’s because personal computers and other disrupting technologies appeared about 1980,  这是因为在 1980 年个人电脑及其他颠覆性技术出现了  and they had a huge impact on the work force.  极大影响了工作人口  It is important that you understand what disrupting technology does to work.  大家要知道颠覆性创新对劳动力带来的冲击  Service class jobs are replaced by technologies,  服务行业的工作正在被科技取代 while creative class jobs are facilitated by technologies.  技术助力创新型工作  That’s because creative class jobs require skills that cannot be replaced by technology  因为创新阶层的工作无法被技术取代  Those skills can only be augmented, or enhanced by disrupting technologies  技术不断助力创新阶层技能的发展  Creative class jobs primarily require what we refer to as headwork skills.  创新阶层的工作首先要求脑力技能  Headwork skills are things like critical thinking, problem solving,  包括批判性思维解决问题  information processing, creativity, innovation, collaboration.  处理信息创造力创新和团队合作能力  The rapid growth in creative class jobs is an entirely new development in economy.  创新阶层工作的迅猛发展是经济中的新趋势  6 学生们需要终身长期技能而非短期技能  But today  今天  new creative class jobs require these headwork skills that are being created every day.  新型创新阶层工作需要日新月异的头脑技能  Take the apps economy for example.  拿应用产业来说  In 2007, no one would have considered a career as an apps developer,  2007 年没有人把开发应用当做是一种职业  because the apps economy didn’t exist until 2008,  因为应用产业要到 2008 年才存在  when Apple released the software development kit for the iphone and up at the app store.  那时苹果公司为 iphone 推出软件开发工具箱和应用商店  But in just 7 years  在短短 7 年时间里  800,000 jobs have been created in the United States alone in the apps industry.  应用产业就为美国创造了 80 万个就业机会  Now let’s convert it into a graph  如果把 Richard Florida 的想法转换成柱状图  So it looks like this.  那应该是这样的  And you can see the steady decline in agriculture in green bar,  大家可以看到绿色这块在稳步下降  and the steady growth of the creative class in purple in the top  而创新阶层也就是紫色那块在稳步增长  If you look closely at this data,  如果你再仔细看下这些数据 you will see that we will face a fundamental problem in education.  你可以看到教育将面临的一个根本问题  The schools that we have today were designed  今天的学校是基于以前的经济需求设计的  when the world had a much different economy,  但现在的情况已经大不一样了  one based on 3/4 of the work force in agriculture and manufacturing.  以前四分之三的劳动力都从事农业和制造业  Schools were designed to prepare students for this work force.  学校都旨在培养这样的人才  The focus of that instruction was to prepare students for that world,  教育的目的是为那时的需求培养人才  and the skills needed are literally illiteracy skills  当时需要的技能可以说是“不用知识的”  and the ability to memorize, the ability to follow orders  需要记忆的能力遵从规定的能力  and in many cases physical labor.  而且大多数情况下都是体力劳动  But today, we have to prepare students for a new economy.  今天我们要培养能适应新经济的学生  One for 3/4 of the work force in service class, or creative class jobs.  四分之三的劳动力都在从事服务或创造行业  An economy of creative class jobs are expected to be 50% of the work force within 5 years.  未来 5 年创造行业预计将占到劳动力队伍的一半  However, schools around the world continue to operate  但是学校却在继续 100 多年前发展起来的教育理念  on the same instructional assumptions that were developed over 100 years ago.  但是学校却在继续 100 多年前发展起来的教育理念  This is a recipe of disaster for students.  这对学生来说是一场悲剧  They are graduating in the 21st  century,  他们在 21 世纪毕业  but we are equipping them with skills targeted for the past.  却只有过时的技能  This prompted David Burnley to say,  所以 David Burnley 说  No generation of students have been so thoroughly prepared  没有一代学生像现在的学生一样  for the 20th  century as the current generation.  如此认真地为 20 世纪做准备  We face a monumental task to bring our schools into line of realities of the modern world.  我们要让学校符合现代社会的现实要求  No longer can we expect students to get everything they need  我们不能再期望学生在青年时期 for their entire lives from schooling in their youth.  就能学到他们一辈子需要的技能  In place of the old model of one chunk learning when we are young,  以前人们只在青年时期高强度学习  we are now in a place where people must learn their whole lives.  现在我们必须终身学习  If there is one certainty of what students will be doing  20 年后学生将在做什么  at two decades from now,  如果存在一个确定回答的话  it’s that they won’t be doing the same thing.  那就是他们将从事不一样的工作  And they certainly won’t be drawing the same body of knowledge.  而且可以肯定的是他们将运用到不同的知识体系  Disruptive innovation has changed the working world so dramatically,  颠覆性创新已经极大改变了工作世界  and so quickly, it is taking educators by surprise.  变化如此之快让教育者们始料未及  Schools continue to focus on the same traditional skills they have for a long time,  但是学校却仍在关注传统的技能  not realizing that there are new skill demand in the world outside the school system.  而没有意识到学校体系外新的技能需求  And this is also the case for universities.  大学的情况也是这样  Thomas Friedman who wrote the book The World Is Flat,  托马斯写了一本书叫《世界是平的》  states that the skills students need to success in universities are a different set of skills,  他说学生在大学取得成功需要的是一套不同的技能  not to mention a lesser set of skills than those needed  更不用说他们毕业后想在生活和工作中  to be successful in life and work after graduate from university  获得成功所需的技能  The ripples of change from disruptive innovation  颠覆性创新带来的涟漪效应  are causing a shift in workplace skills at an amazing speed.  正在迅速改变职场所需的技能  The US department of Labor Study suggests that  美国劳工部指出  50% of worker skills become outdated within 3 to 5 years.  未来 3 到 5 年 50%的技能将过时  This means that learning a necessary year-round activity, constant learning is mandatory  这就意味着活到老学到老是必须的  because it’s the only assurance for individuals and groups  因为这样可以保证个人和集体 have against being blind sighted by disruptive innovation.  不会因为颠覆性创新的冲击而迷失方向  It is becoming increasingly clear that  可以清楚看到  the kind of skills the students need to learn  学生们需要的技能  are what have been referred to as long-life skills, not short-life skills.  是终身长期的技能而非短期技能  Short-life skills are related to the skills of memorization of specific content,  短期技能跟记忆特定内容  or the learning of strict procedures  或者学习严格的流程相关  Short-life skills quickly cease be relevant,  短期技能很快就跟现实脱节  particularly when you live in an age of disruptive innovation and disposable information.  特别是我们处在颠覆性创新和信息爆炸的时代  Today, both in life and workplace,  今天无论生活还是工作  there is far more emphasis being placed on long-life skills.  终身技能越来越受重视  Long-life skills are things like self-learning, creativity, critical thinking,  终身技能包括自主学习创造力批判性思维  and those skills I have mentioned before.  以及我刚刚提到的技能  Long-life skills are skills that can be applied over and over again through all your life  终身技能是那些你可以在一生中反复运用的技能  because they never expire.  因为它们永远不会过期  A recent study in the United States indicates that  美国最近一项调查表明  over 60% of the managers they surveyed said that long-life skills are the most important factor  they consider  超过 60%的被访经理说在招募员工或评估员工表现时  when hiring and when evaluating an employee’s performance.  他们最看重的是雇员的终身技能  The problem for educators is that  对教育者而言  long-life skills are a very different set of skills from those we focus in schools.  问题就在于终身技能跟学校关注的技能存在很大差异  It is ly clear that  可以肯定的一点是  we can no longer just continue to teach students facts,  我们不能继续只给学生教授事实  and expect students just to regurgitating it back to us, 然后希望他们重复给我们  because so many of the facts in the world change so quickly.  因为现在很多事实都变得很快  It is projected that  据预计  our students are going to deal with more than 10 different careers in their lives,  我们学生在一生中将从事十多份不同的职业  consequently they have to replace almost the entire body of knowledge  因此在他们职业生涯的不同阶段  several times during their working lives.  他们必须建立起不同的知识框架  I apologize this sounds cruel  不好意思这听起来很残酷  but increasingly the world doesn’t care what you know or what you memorize,  但是现实却不在乎你知道或记住什么  because almost everything is instantly available in Baidu or Google  因为几乎所有的信息都可以在百度或谷歌上迅速找到  if you have effective searching skills.  只要你有有效的搜索工具  Increasingly, the world will only cares,  现实只关注  and will only pay for what you can do with what you know.  也只会支付你能基于你所知道的做什么  But to be able to do productive work  要想让你所做的富有成效  with what you know requires long-life skills, not just short-life skills.  就要有终身技能而不是短期技能  The shift to an emphasis on long-life skills was outlined in the recent article  最近 Cassel 和 Costello 在《教育心理学期刊》上发表的文章  by Cassel and Costelloin the Journal of Instructional Psychology.  也着重强调了终身技能  Their researchrevealed that in the 1970s,  他们的调查指出在 20 世纪 70 年代  the top three skills sought by Fortune Top 500 companies  世界 500 强要求的三大技能  were basically illiteracy skills, reading, writing and arithmetic.  是阅读写作和算术  But the year 2015, the top three skills in demand  但在 2015 年最需要的三大技能  are teamwork, problem solving and interpersonal skills.  是团队合作解决问题和人际交往技能  We need schools that are developing these skills,  学校应该培养学生的这三大技能  because the economyhas shifted. 因为经济已经转型  Today our most critical assets are no longer minerals, grain,  今天我们最重要的资产不再是矿产粮食  wood or other agricultural products.  木材或其他农业产品  The most critical asset we have is the highly educated technological  最重要的资产是终身学习者创造的高科技  and literate work forceof life-long learners,  和高水平的成果  learners who had been equipped with long-life skills  这些学习者拥有技能终身受用  that they can apply again and again over their entire lives.  这些学习者拥有技能终身受用  7 保障未来的 9 大终身技能  So what exactly are these long-life skills?  终身技能是什么呢  Skills that are available now and will remain valuable 50 years from now  终身技能是现在可获得并且在 50 年后  when students are retiring from their careers.  也就是我们的学生退休的时候仍然很宝贵的技能  I have discovered that there are 9 skills that are future proof  我找到了可以保障未来的 9 大技能  9 skills that will empower individuals to obtain life-long success.  这 9 大技能将让个人能够取得终身的成功  I don’t know how these are translated into Chinese,  我不知道这 9 大技能怎么译成中文  but in English, each of the names of these skills begin with an letter I.  但在英语这 9 大技能的首字母都是 I  So I call them the 9 I’s.  所以我把它们叫做 9I  And although each of them is an entire workshop long,  如果每一个技能都展开讲的话需要比较长的时间  let me give you a brief review of them right now.  这里我只跟大家简要介绍一下  The first I is intrapersonal skills.  第一个是自我沟通技能  Intrapersonal skills are the internal skills that take place inside a person.  自我沟通技能指的是一个人与自我内在沟通的技能  Skills like patience, self-confidence, open mindedness, being able to manage emotions.  比如耐心自信开放能够控制自己的情绪  These skills, although they are not skills that we focus on in schools, 虽然这些不是学校关注的技能  in fact are the most important skills that we inculcate in our students.  它们却是我们灌输给学生的最重要的技能  Intrapersonal skills also include skills needed to be a productive person,  自我沟通技能也包括能让自己更富有成效的技能  like how to learn,  比如如何学习  how to take initiatives,  如何积极主动  how to overcome boredom and self-motivate  如何克服空虚并自我鼓励  how to manage your time,  如何管理时间  how to evaluate your own work,  如何评估自己的工作  how to set long-term goals.  符合树立长期目标  The second I is interpersonal skills.  第二个 I 是人际交往技能  Interpersonal skills are the skills we use every day to communicate  人际交往技能指的是我们每天运用的  and interact with other people both individually or in groups.  跟其他个人或团体沟通互动的技能  Interpersonal skills include such things as the ability to conduct productive conversations,  人际交往技能包括有能力建立起有效的对话  the ability to listen, understanding non-verbal communication  能够倾听理解别人的言外之意  be able to persuade, debate, convince, sell or defend a position.  能说服别人辩论让别人信服销售自己或捍卫自己的立场  the ability to ask questions  能提问  being able to communicate respectfully  能尊重他人  being able to accept criticism  能接受批评  being able to give criticism constructively  能给出建设性的批评  and being able to be assert yourself  能自我维护  The third I is independent problem solving skills.  第三个 I 是独立解决问题的技能  Learning effective thinking strategies for solving problems  学会有效的解决问题的思考策略  will equip students with powerful tools for the modern world. 将成为学生强大的工具  People with these skills will be sought after  拥有这种技能的人将受追捧  because there are such need for problem solvers in the world today.  因为当今社会非常需要能解决问题的人  Students must be taught a structured mental process  我们必须教给学生组织严密的思考步骤  they can follow to solve problems.  他们可以根据这个步骤来解决问题  Just like there is a structured process to follow when they have some writing to do.  就像在写作的时候给他们一个组织严密的步骤一样  I have developed such a process for students called the 4 D’s.  我为学生们制定了四个步骤简称 4D  Again, I don’t know how they can be translated into Chinese.  我也不知道这四个步骤译成中文是怎样的  but in English, the names of each of these steps begin with the same letter D.  但在英语里每个步骤的首字母都是 D  These represent the four essential steps anyone can follow to solve a problem.  这四个步骤代表解决问题的四个基本步骤  They are  它们是  define a problem  定义问题  design a solution  设计解决方案  do the work  采取行动  debrief the process when you are done  反省自己所采取的步骤  The forth I is interdependent collaboration skills  第四个 I 是相互合作技能  Being able to work with co-workers on a project has always been an important skills.  在一个项目中能与伙伴合作一直以来都是非常重要的技能  Because by working together,  因为通过合作  a group can be more productive than individual.  团队的生产力要比个人的高  interdependent collaboration skills include such things as  相互合作技能  being able to organize functional team members who can complement one another  包括能够建立起相辅相成的职能队伍  being able to criticize ideas without criticizing individuals  能够对事不对人  negotiating within a team 与队员协商  group brainstorming  进行头脑风暴  group problem-solving  团队解决问题  listening and listening to feedback  善于倾听接受反馈  and taking responsibilities to designated tasks  对指定任务抱有高度的责任感  And today, with global online communication and shared productivity tools,  今天得益于全球网络沟通及共享工具  collaborating with people on projects using tools like Skype, and go to meeting  通过使用诸如 Skype 等工具与他人进行项目合作或开会  and Google docs are adding a new dimension for modern collaboration  给现代合作增加了一个新的层面  You have to work collaboratively with people who aren’t physically there  你必须跟不在现场的人合作  Learning the skills to function effectively in virtual work group  学会在虚拟团队中高效工作  has already become an essential skill in the modern world.  已经成为当今世界一个基本技能  The fifth I is information investigation skills.  第五个 I 是信息检索技能  Today we are drowning in data,  现在信息爆炸  but starve for knowledge.  我们渴望知识  What the world need is people who can investigate a specific topic,  我们需要的是那些能对特定话题进行调查的人  Find the data that is pertinent to their investigation,  找到跟他们调查相关的数据  and then determine the meaning of all the data they have  接着利用高水平思考加工信息  retrieved by processing that information by higher level thinking.  确定他们检索到的数据的意义  We want student to comprehend what they find,  我们希望学生能够理解他们找到的数据的意义  not just regurgitating  而不只是重复  We want students to demonstrate understanding,  我们希望学生能展现出他们的理解力  not robotically echo formula learning  而不是像机器人一样机械性地重复  We want them to apply what they have learnt 我们希望学生能学以致用  not just acquire theoretical knowledge  而不只是习得理论知识  And just like problem-solving,  就像解决问题一样  students must learn a structured mental process  学生也必须学会一套组织严密的步骤  to follow when doing information investigation  以进行信息检索  We have developed such a process called the 5A’s  我们制定了五个步骤,叫 5A  These represent the five essential steps to do information processing  这五个步骤代表信息检索的五个基本步骤  They are  它们是  ask questions about the task  对任务进行提问  access and acquire the raw data  寻找及获得原始数据  analyze the data for relevance  分析数据的相关性  apply what you have found to the task you have to deal with  将找到的数据应用到任务中  and assess the process when you are done  评估自己的表现  The sixth I is information communication skills  第六个 I 是信息沟通技能  Most of us grew up communicating by reading and writing texts  在我们的成长过程中很多人使用读写沟通  Even today schools primarily focus on learning how to communicate with texts  甚至今天的学校也首要关注如何与课文进行沟通  However, in the world outside school,  但是在学校之外,  communicating solely using texts has been superseded by communication  仅仅依赖课文的沟通  that uses text plus graphic design  已经被课文+图表的沟通方式所取代  And for kids today that are growing up in the Youtube era,  而且今天的孩子是跟着 Youtube 一起成长  communication has moved further to a video standard  沟通已经延伸到视频层面  Young people today are immersed in a world of full motion videos  年轻人已经沉浸在充满视频的世界里  They watch videos for entertainment and to learn 他们看视频来娱乐学习  All this have changed the skills people need to be effective consumers  这些都改变了人们想成为高效的沟通消费者  and producers of communication in the world today  和生产者所需的技能  Modern information communication skills include  现代信息沟通技能包括  an understanding of graphic design  能够理解图表设计  an understanding of typography  能够理解排版背后的含义  an understanding of effective use of color  能够理解色彩的有效利用  an understanding of photo composition  能够理解图像的构成  an understanding of video composition  能够理解视频的构成  an understanding of production  能够理解成果  These are all skills students need to function effectively in the modern world  这些都是学生们需要的技能以在现代社会中高效活动  The seventh I is imagination creativity skills  第七个 I 是想象力和创新技能  There are four aspects for imagination creativity  想象力和创新技能有四个方面  First, imagination creativity skills can be used to communicate ideas more powerfully  首先这一技能使想法的传达更有力  The goal here is to use an alternate medium to  目的就在于使用其他媒介  get people to consider an idea in a different way  让人们用不同的方式思考  So instead of talking the topic or communicating on a standard report or essay format  因此我们不再用标准的报告或格式来谈论一个话题  you can write a poem or compose a song  你可以作诗或作曲  you can shoot a video  你可以拍视频  develop a script for a play  写剧本  or create a poster  或设计海报  You could make a website, paint a painting or create a sculpture  你也可以设计一个网站画幅画或刻个雕像  In other words, using an alternate method of communication 也就是说利用不同的沟通方法  to make people see things from a different perspective  让人们从不同的角度看待事物  The second aspect of imagination creativity  其次  is coming out creative designs of how things function  对事物的运行方式进行创造性的设计  The intuitiveness of the design of an interface for using a new electronic device, for example,  比如说为一个新的电子设备设计界面  or how to design an airport terminal that allows large people flow within the building  或设计机场航站楼以容纳更多的人流量  The third aspect of imagination creativity  再次  is how you can use design to convey meaning  通过设计传递意义  and add value of something beyond its functions  为东西增值  For example,  比如说  Apple adds value to their products through exterior shape of their technology  苹果公司通过外观设计提升产品价值  to make them more desirable than those of their competitors  打败竞争对手  The idea is that there are lots of companies that made computers  这里的理念是很多公司都做电脑  but there is only one company that makes Apple computers  但只有一家公司做苹果电脑  Ford makes their vehicles desirable with the exterior design of their cars  福特也通过外观设计使车辆更招人喜欢  Another example would be adding meaning and value  另外通过设计一栋建筑的外观  through the design of the exterior shape of a building,  或一座房子的布局或外观  or the layout or design of the exterior of a house  也可提升意义和价值  The fourth aspect of imagination creativity  最后  goes beyond adding values to functional things  创造力不止为事物增加价值  This is about creating value purely from beauty  也可单纯从美中创造价值  This is why people buy a sculpture, or a work of art, or a piece of music  这就是为什么人们会购买一座雕像一件艺术品或一首歌的原因  The product doesn’t have to serve a function 产品不一定要具备某一功能  Its value can come purely form shape, its color, its texture, or its sound.  它们的价值可单纯来自性状颜色质地或声音  These skills can’t be taught just like other skills.  这些技能不能跟其他技能一样教授  However  但是  teaching these skills have not been a major focus in schools in my observation.  据我观察这些技能没有得到学校的重视  And this must change  这一点必须得到改变  if we hope to prepare students for the world of the future  如果我们想让学生为未来做好充足的准备的话  The 8th  I is innovation creativity  第八个 I 是创新及创造力  Innovation creativity focuses on how things function  创新及创造力关注事物如何运行  The core of innovation thinking is how to make things better  创新思维的核心就是如何让事物变得更好  However, there is a major misconception  但是人们有这样一个误解  that the ability to innovate is genetic  就是创造力是天生的  that some people have it  有的人有  and some people don’t  有的人没有  This is simply untrue.  这不是真的  Certainly there are some people who are better at innovating than others  当然有的人更善于创新  but all of us have the capacity to come out with new ideas  但我们所有人都有想出新主意的能力  For example,  比如说  have you ever watched someone doing a task, like loading a truck?  大家有没有看过别人执行一项任务比如说给卡车装车  or how the textbooks are distributed in your high school  或贵校是如何发课本的  and thought to yourselves,  然后一边看一边想  I don’t think I would do it this way  要是我我就不会这么做  If they did, they would save time and energy 如果他们用我的方法做的话会更省时省力  That is innovation skills  这就是创新技能  and there is a great need for this kind of creative, innovative thinking skills in the world today  今天社会很需要这种创新思考技能  This kind of innovative skills cannot be dug out if we don’t make a priority  如果我们不注重的话这种创新能力是没法被挖掘出来的  The key skill is to be able to generate ideas,  主要的技能是能够产生想法  to be able to think freely without fear failure  能自由思考而不害怕失败  There is a great need for teachers to create an environment in their class  我们需要教师能在课堂中创造这样一种氛围  that fosters this kind of creative thought  来培养学生额创造性思维  where students can come up with new ideas  在这样氛围中新主意层出不穷  without worrying being right or fearing about what happens if they are wrong  学生们也无需担心对错  And the 9th I is internet citizen skills  第 9 个 I 是网络公民技能  You would not give your kids the keys to drive a car  在你孩子学会开车之前  without teaching them how to drive, would you?  你是不会给他车钥匙的对吗  Instead, due to the seriousness of driving a motor vehicle,  由于驾驶机动车辆还是比较严肃的  you will first outline the expectation and identify  你首先会向孩子说明  the consequences from inappropriate actions  不当操作可能带来的后果  Then you will give them some guidance to practice  然后你会给他一些指导  so they can develop their driving skills safely  这样他们就能培养起安全行驶的技能  Only then will you give them the keys of the car  只有到那时你才会给他们车钥匙  But every day parents and teachers give their kids smart phones and other digital devices  但今天父母和家长给他们孩子可上网的智能手机和其他数码设备时  that have access to the Internet without proper guidance  却没有给予适当的指导  And without that guidance  没有这样的指导  some people inevitably do stupid and dangerous things 有些人不可避免会做出一些愚蠢或危险的行为  sometimes resulting in tragic, global consequences  有时会导致悲剧或影响全球的后果  So it’s important that we teach young people how to use these tools safely  所以告诉学生如何安全使用这些工具非常重要  There are three guidance principles that young people must be taught about using the Internet  以下是必须教给青年人的三个上网指导方针  They are  它们是  how to protect yourselves in the online world  如何在网络世界中保护自己  how to respect others in the online world  如何在网络世界中尊重他人  and how to respect the work of others in the online world  如何在网络世界中尊重他人的成果  Building on these three principles,  基于这三个原则  kids are set of ever changing social conventions  孩子们能了解使用数码技术时  around how people should act using digital technologies  应遵守怎样的社会准则  With these skills,  拥有这些技能  young people will be able to access the power of the online world safely and responsibly  年轻人将能够安全负责地获取网络世界的力量  These 9 skills are the essential skills  这九个技能是学生必学的基本技能  that all the students must learn if we hope to prepare them for the life in the future  如果我们希望他们为未来做好准备的话  This is a critical point  这很重要  Learning these skills is not optional  这些技能是必学的  if we hope to prepare students for the working world they will experience in their lifetimes.  如果我们希望学生具备应对未来世界的能力的话  Shifting teaching to these skills possesses teachers with a considerable challenge,  向这些技能转变给老师们带去一个巨大的挑战  I realize this  这点我也意识到了  But disruptive innovation is forcing educators to change the way we do things  但颠覆性创新让我们不得不改变以往的教育方式  You will recall at the beginning of this presentation  大家可能还记得演讲刚开始的时候  I said disruptive innovation ultimately is a human issue 我说颠覆性创新将最终影响全人类  It may start with technological development  它可能始于科技发展  but as the effect of ripple grows  但随着涟漪效应的发展  it change people’s lives  它将改变人们的生活  it force us to do old things in new ways  迫使我们用新的方式处理以前的事情  It pushes us out of our zone of comfort  把我们推出“安全区”  We ignore these ripples of change at our peril  我们不能冒险忽略这些变化  Their impact growth exponentially  它们的影响呈指数型增长  And those who do not prepare for the future will pay a heavy price  那些不为未来做准备的人将付出沉重的代价  We must understand  我们必须知道  that if the disruptive innovation can destruct the successful businesses,  如果颠覆性创新能够破坏成功的商业的话  like RadioShack in North America  像北美的 RadioShack5  which had a successful chain of stores selling electronics across the continent five years ago  年前成功经营着很多电子产品连锁店  And it’s no longer in business today  今天却已经倒闭  If disruptive innovation can destroy entire industries,  如果颠覆性创新能够破快整个产业  like auto manufacturing  如汽车制造业  and it can disrupt the entire economy out of the country  它也能破坏一个国家的整个经济  you can’t assume that it would not disrupt education  大家不能有这样的想法觉得它不会破坏教育  Disruptive innovation affects the kinds of skills needed to succeed in the modern world  颠覆性创新影响着在当今世界取得成功所需的技能  and that has a direct effect on what we do on our schools today  这对我们学校也有着直接的影响  The critical question you must ask yourselves is  大家必须问自己这个重要的问题  are you preparing your students for the world of the future  你是否在帮助学生为未来做准备  The success of any nation depends on the answer to this question 任何一个国家的成败都取决于这个问题的答案  to adequately prepare students for the future  为了让学生为未来做好充足的准备  you must recognize the global forces that are shaping the world  你必须意识到这些正在塑造全球的力量  and redefine the skills  并重新定义  that are needed to be productive in the new working environment  在新的工作环境中需要怎样的技能才能提高生产力  This will require a conscious effort  这需要付出努力  to shift instructions to teach students the 9 skills that I outline this morning  改变教育方式培养学生我刚刚强调的九种技能  The country that does this best will guaranteethat  随着时间的推移  continuous success as we move forward into the 21st  century  在这点上做得最好的国家将能持续取得成功  Those who don’t,  那些不做出改变的  run the risk of failing their children  他们的孩子可能会失败  There are so many other things  我想跟大家分享的还有很多  that I would love to talk to you this morning about effective teaching in the modern world  关于如何现代社会开展高效教学  But I will have to leave you with this  但我只能讲到这儿了  when students enter school,  当学生来到学校  it is our job to prepare them for the world they will enter when they graduate  我们有责任让他们为未来做好准备  But it’s even more important than that  更重要的是  our job is to equip students with mental skills that will last for a life time  我们有责任培养学生终身受用的脑力技能  And the key to effective instruction for the modern world  高效教育的关键  is to forget the past and fix our eye firmly on the future  就在于忘记过去着眼未来  because that’s where our students will spend most of their lives  因为学生的大半辈子将在未来度过  The importance of this was captured in a quote from John Kennedy  这一点的重要性正如肯尼迪总统所指出的,  He said 他说  change is the law of life  变化是生命不变的定律  those who only look to the past or the present are certain to miss the future  而那些只懂得留恋过去或现在的人肯定会错失未来  while it’s taking a long time to happen  这需要时间印证  the law of life, the law of change has caught up to education  但是生命的定律变化的定律已经渗入教育  That means we must embrace change as a normal part of our jobs 
这就意味着我们必须把变化当做工作的新常态  And we cannot wait,  时不我待  the students need us to change right now  学生需要我们现在就做出改变  so that they will be ready for the world of the future  这样他们才能为未来做好准备  Thank you very much for listening.  谢谢大家   

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